Ethereum extends losses after U.S. payroll data supports prolonged Fed tightening

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Ethereum slides 3.48% amid volatility

Highlights

Escalating Middle East tensions, energy disruptions, and sticky inflation have intensified risk aversion and driven Ethereum's multi-week price decline.
Despite broad market instability and strong U.S. payroll data pressuring risk assets, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw continued net inflows from institutions.
Ethereum trades below major moving averages with mostly bearish technical momentum, and is expected to consolidate between $1,342.22 and $1,768.50 over the next few days with high downside risk.

Institutional inflows persist as macro risks drive volatility

Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, combined with energy supply disruptions and ongoing inflation risks, have triggered a pronounced risk-off environment that has weakened demand and increased selling pressure on Ethereum. Strong U.S. payroll data, reinforcing expectations for a prolonged restrictive Federal Reserve stance, contributed to market volatility and further limited risk-taking. Despite this environment, notable net inflows were recorded in U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, reflecting a degree of continued institutional engagement even as broader macro instability has tracked with a multi-week decline in digital asset valuations. Recent governmental military escalation, including U.S. proportional strikes against Iran, has added an additional layer of volatility and risk sensitivity for Ethereum.

Weak momentum signals as sellers dominate below support levels

On the technical front, ETH remains below the MA-20 ($1,651.68) and MA-50 ($1,720.37) on the four-hour chart, as well as under the MA-200 ($2,439.66) on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at $1,613.81 offers immediate support for the session. Momentum signals are notably weak, with RSI at 41.3 (Sell), MACD indicating a Strong Sell, and ADX signaling Sell. Both Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) are in oversold territory, while CCI stays Neutral and the Awesome Oscillator remains Neutral, reflecting indecision. BBP highlights dominant seller momentum today, while volatility is moderate and price trades at mid-range.

Extended range trading likely as downside risks outweigh breakout odds

Forecast models indicate a high likelihood of ETH consolidating within a volatility band between $1,342.22 and $1,768.50 over the next 2–3 trading days. The probability of a swift move higher appears very low, while further declines remain highly probable if price breaks below immediate support levels. The baseline scenario calls for continued choppy action within this corridor, with a bullish breakout leading to a potential retest of resistance areas and a bearish breakdown likely accelerating additional losses.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees Ethereum as currently caught in a risk-off cycle driven by heightened geopolitical tension, persistent inflation, and strong macro data. He notes that the price is still under key moving averages and major technical signals are weak, yet steady ETF inflows hint at resilient institutional demand. The analyst believes that unless there is a sudden return of risk appetite, ETH is likely to remain in a choppy range with a downside tilt. 'If spot ETF inflows continue and volatility stabilizes, Ethereum could find its footing and attempt a recovery from support,' Karapetjanc states.

Previously it was reported that Circle launched cirBTC on Ethereum providing institutions with a regulated way to use Bitcoin within Ethereum-based DeFi markets. In the current risk-off environment, monitoring Ethereum’s ability to maintain support above the Ichimoku Kijun at $1,613.81 is critical, as a decisive move below this level could accelerate downside momentum despite ongoing institutional inflows.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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