Avalanche price prediction: Will SEC ETF nod push AVAX toward $10.38 resistance?

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Avalanche jumps 6.87% today on ETF news

Highlights

SEC approval of the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF enables regulated institutional and retail access to Avalanche (AVAX), expanding potential demand.
The ETF’s active management approach is expected to enhance AVAX’s liquidity and attract sustained buy-side inflows.
AVAX/USD demonstrates strong bullish momentum with buyers dominating, projected to trade between $6.84 and $7.07 amid high volatility.

Institutional access expands as SEC approves active crypto ETF

The most material development for Avalanche is the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF, which is set to be listed on NYSE Arca and will include Avalanche (AVAX) among its eligible digital assets. This regulatory milestone by the SEC introduces a significant new channel for institutional capital and retail investors to gain exposure to AVAX under a regulated structure, greatly expanding access and potential demand for the token. The confirmed ETF structure, prioritizing active selection and rotation, increases the probability of enhanced liquidity and buy-side flows for AVAX going forward.

Bullish momentum builds as technicals extend into overbought territory

On the technical side, AVAX/USD is trading above its MA-20 ($6.74) and MA-50 ($6.69), while remaining below the long-term MA-200 ($10.38). The Ichimoku Kijun level at $6.70 serves as immediate support. Momentum remains robust, supported by strong MACD and ADX readings, while an elevated RSI of 73.61—alongside overbought signals in Stoch RSI and CCI—suggests price is extended to the upside. Bull/Bear Power confirms intraday buyer dominance, complemented by a supportive Awesome Oscillator signal. High volatility and trading near session highs further amplify this bullish momentum, but overextended oscillators imply that some short-term cooling cannot be ruled out.

Sideways consolidation expected as price anchors below resistance

Looking ahead, AVAX/USD is likely to consolidate within the $6.84 to $7.07 range in the coming sessions, in line with typical volatility and recent price behavior. The most probable scenario is continued sideways movement within this corridor. A confirmed break above recent resistance would open the door to further gains, while a reversal would require a decisive move below support at the Kijun, which presently appears less likely.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the SEC's approval of the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF as a strong structural support for Avalanche. He believes this regulatory breakthrough can catalyze institutional and retail inflows, enhancing market confidence around AVAX. With technical momentum positive and buy-side forces active, the backdrop appears constructive. "ETF inclusion signals a new era of demand for Avalanche, and I see this as a launchpad for further upside," says Karapetjanc.

Previously it was reported that Avalanche Treasury made its public debut via a SPAC merger, positioning itself to drive institutional adoption and capital influx into the Avalanche ecosystem. The newly approved T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF adds a significant institutional channel for AVAX exposure, and traders should monitor for a confirmed breakout above $7.07 as the next catalyst for renewed upward momentum.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.