US-Iran thaw lifts Bitcoin toward fresh gains

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Bitcoin up 1.06% today at $66,435.99

Highlights

The US-Iran peace agreement has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil prices and improving Bitcoin's macro outlook.
Despite reduced geopolitical risk, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $316 million net outflows for a fifth consecutive week, signaling weak institutional appetite.
Short- to medium-term Bitcoin momentum is bullish, with a 67% probability of trading between $63,512.49 and $69,359.49 over the next 2–3 days.

ETF outflows persist as geopolitical relief counters cautious sentiment

A ceasefire and preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran has been confirmed, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil transit point. Lower energy prices following the deal have eased inflation expectations and improved the macroeconomic backdrop for Bitcoin. Despite this geopolitical relief, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of approximately $316 million for a fifth consecutive week, raising concerns about sustained institutional demand. The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to further influence sentiment, with interest rate expectations and forward guidance now in focus.

Bullish signals strengthen as medium-term resistance contains momentum

On the technical front, BTC/USD is trading above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the working timeframe, while it remains below the MA-200 on the daily chart. Immediate support is provided by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $65,060.98. Momentum indicators largely present a bullish picture: MACD and ADX are signaling Buy, RSI is at 61.78 (indicating active buyers without overbought conditions), and CCI also gives a Buy signal. BBP reflects intraday buyer dominance, whereas Stoch RSI and the Awesome Oscillator are neutral, suggesting that short-term momentum is mixed despite strong directional signals from other oscillators.

Breakout probability rises as price consolidates in volatility band

In the short term, BTC is expected to trade within a volatility band of $63,512.49 to $69,359.49 over the next two to three trading days. There is a 67% probability of an upward move, with a 33% chance of a downward scenario. If price stays within this corridor, consolidation is likely; a break above resistance could trigger fresh upside, while loss of support at the Kijun level could initiate a near-term pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin technically buoyant above short- and medium-term moving averages, yet overall strength remains capped by persistent outflows from spot ETFs. He notes that while geopolitical relief and lower energy prices have calmed macro risks, institutional appetite continues to shrink. Cautious sentiment persists as long as longer-term resistance and ETF demand fail to improve. "Until ETF flows turn positive and Bitcoin recaptures the MA-200, I remain on the defensive."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin’s price action was influenced by global central bank policy shifts, particularly the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike and its nuanced approach to liquidity. The confirmation of easing geopolitical tensions and the reopening of major energy transit routes now shifts the focus to upcoming macroeconomic catalysts, especially the Federal Reserve meeting, with Bitcoin traders advised to monitor volatility and potential breakout moves beyond $69,359.49 for directional cues.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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