U.S. House bill seeks to bar lawmakers from prediction market bets on policy outcomes

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House bill bans prediction bets

Highlights

Rep. Bryan Steil introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act to bar members of Congress and their families from betting on prediction markets tied to government actions.
The bill mandates penalties of nearly $2,000 or 10% of the transaction value, plus any net gain from the bet, for violations involving policy outcome wagers.
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket face rising scrutiny after a Polymarket user profited over $400,000 from a Venezuela bet and following the Senate’s recent self-imposed trading ban.

House proposal targets insider trading risks

The Block reported that Republican Rep. Bryan Steil on Thursday introduced the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, a bill that would ban lawmakers and their families from placing prediction market bets tied to specific government actions, policies or political outcomes.

Steil said in a statement that the measure is intended to ensure members of Congress do not profit from insider information and to help restore public trust in elected officials. The five-page bill would impose penalties of nearly $2,000 or 10% of the value of the transaction, whichever is greater, along with any net gain realized from the bet.

The proposal builds on the Stop Insider Trading Act, which seeks to prevent lawmakers and their families from buying publicly traded stocks. Other House bills have also been introduced to stop lawmakers from taking part in prediction markets.

Prediction markets face broader regulatory pressure

Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in popularity over the past year, increasing concerns that traders could use nonpublic information to profit from political or policy-linked contracts.

Those concerns intensified earlier this year after an anonymous Polymarket user earned more than $400,000 by betting that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power before the end of the month. Prosecutors have since arrested active-duty U.S. Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, who allegedly used confidential information to place that wager.

Last month, the Senate moved to bar itself from trading on prediction markets as part of an effort to curb insider trading. Kalshi and Polymarket have also said they have taken steps to limit insider trading risks.

Our earlier report on the proposed congressional prediction market ban detailed Rep. Bryan Steil’s Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act, which would bar Members of Congress and their immediate families from betting on policy, government action, or election outcomes. We also outlined the enforcement framework and penalties—$2,000 or 10% of the transaction value, plus forfeiture of any gains—positioning the measure as part of a broader push to curb insider-information abuse and strengthen public trust.

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