Bitcoin price prediction: $60,662–$65,942 range in focus? BTC down 1.85%

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Bitcoin drops 1.85% today to $62,907

Highlights

A preliminary US-Iran ceasefire and memorandum to discuss sanction relief has lowered geopolitical risks and improved the macro outlook for global assets.
While the news potentially benefits Bitcoin’s liquidity backdrop, selling pressure persists and the fundamental boost has yet to impact price action materially.
BTC/USD remains under sustained bearish pressure, trading below major moving averages, with indicators showing weak momentum and an expected price range of $60,662 to $65,942.

Risk appetite improves as US-Iran accord eases global tensions

The US and Iran have agreed to a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend a ceasefire and open negotiations on sanction relief, according to Cryptobriefing. This development reduces geopolitical tensions and creates the prospect of improved liquidity and lower risk across global assets. The announcement has relevance for the macro backdrop facing Bitcoin, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold momentum and resistance cap upside as sellers dominate

On the h4 timeframe, BTC is trading below the MA-20 at $64,852 and MA-50 at $64,429, while also remaining well beneath the MA-200 at $77,162 on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $64,782 represents immediate resistance. RSI stands at 36.2, suggesting a sell bias, and both MACD and Awesome Oscillator are signaling in sell mode. The ADX remains neutral, with Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP all displaying oversold readings, pointing to increasing seller dominance during intraday sessions.

Sideways range likely as downside risks outweigh breakout chances

For the coming sessions, the anticipated trading range is $60,662 to $65,942, representing a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a decisive upward move is considered very low, while downside risk remains elevated, limiting recovery prospects. The base case is for BTC/USD to trade sideways unless resistance at $64,782 is broken; a loss of the lower bound would confirm increased seller control.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the latest US-Iran memorandum as a meaningful step in reducing global macro risk, but notes that Bitcoin has yet to benefit from this improved backdrop. He believes market sentiment remains pressured by technical weakness despite the positive geopolitical news. The analyst points to oversold readings and strong resistance at $64,782 as key constraints for any near-term recovery. "If Bitcoin can break above $64,782, I expect renewed buying interest to emerge, but until then, caution remains warranted."

Previously it was reported that continued bearish momentum and institutional developments were shaping Bitcoin's outlook amid heightened downside risk. The current backdrop—marked by persistent sell signals and a more stable macro environment—reinforces the need for traders to monitor shifts in resistance at $64,782, as a breakout could signal a shift in trend despite prevailing headwinds.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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