Bitcoin moves lower as MACD and ADX indicate continued selling pressure: weekly analysis

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Bitcoin slips 3.45% over the week

Highlights

Bitcoin remains under sustained medium- and long-term bearish pressure, trading below key moving averages.
Momentum and trend indicators reinforce a dominant selling bias, though several oscillators flag conditions as oversold.
Bitcoin is expected to range between $61,000 and $64,800 over the next week, with downside risk prevailing absent a move above $64,800.

ETF outflows persist as corporate buying and quantum risks emerge

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have seen notable net outflows, with BlackRock's IBIT experiencing significant redemptions. At the same time, companies such as MicroStrategy and Strive have been accumulating Bitcoin on market dips, partially offsetting ETF outflows. Security concerns have also resurfaced amid US government efforts to advance quantum computing, as reports indicate that approximately $449 billion in Bitcoin is held in wallets considered at risk to potential quantum attacks.

Bearish momentum deepens as oversold signals and volatility intensify

Weekly technical indicators confirm a bearish setup: Bitcoin remains below its W1 MA-20 and MA-50, while holding just above the W1 MA-200. Both the MACD and ADX show negative momentum, supporting a seller-dominated landscape. Oversold readings from the RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI highlight stretched conditions, but Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator continue to align with the current bearish trend. Bitcoin's position in the lower part of the weekly range is underscored by the 5.95% weekly volatility, reinforcing the sustained downside momentum.

Limited upside expected as oversold conditions meet weak breakout signals

Over the next 7 days, Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways between $61,000 and $64,800 as oversold oscillator signals may temporarily balance out prevailing bearish momentum. The probability of a sustained upward move is low, as none of the four key indicators have issued a buy signal, suggesting less than a 20% chance of an upward breakout. A bullish reversal scenario would require a decisive move above $64,800, while a break below $61,000 could lead to new local lows.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, observes that Bitcoin ended the week under noticeable selling pressure, sitting below its medium-term moving averages while hovering just above its long-term MA-200 support. He notes that persistent ETF outflows and security concerns have depressed sentiment, although some corporate accumulation on dips partially offsets weakness. Despite flashing oversold technical readings, momentum remains negative, and a concrete bullish reversal is unlikely unless price reclaims $64,800. "With sellers in control and only oversold signals offering a pause, I expect Bitcoin to oscillate between $61,000 and $64,800 this week — a decisive break of either boundary will set the next direction."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin was exhibiting subdued volatility and limited bullish momentum amid persistent ETF outflows and reduced speculative activity. The current setup not only corroborates this cautious outlook with fresh evidence of ETF redemptions and technical weakness, but also introduces heightened security risks, making the resilience of the $61,000 support an increasingly critical focus for the week ahead.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.