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Robinhood stock stops correlating with Bitcoin
Robinhood Markets stock has started to move away from Bitcoin after several months of almost synchronized price action. Trader Heisenberg pointed this out after sharing the corresponding chart on X.
According to him, Robinhood shares and Bitcoin had been moving roughly in the same direction since October 2025. However, over the past month, HOOD has started to “decouple” from BTC. At the time of the check, Robinhood stock was trading near $103.25, while Bitcoin was hovering around $62,710.
Robinhood shares used to react strongly to crypto market sentiment because the company depends on retail activity and crypto trading revenue. However, the latest divergence suggests that investors are increasingly valuing the company not only through the lens of Bitcoin.
Why Robinhood stock behavior has changed
One factor was Robinhood’s new $2 billion capital raise through convertible notes. The company will use part of the funds for share buybacks, while the remaining capital may go toward business development, investments and possible deals. This gives Robinhood more flexibility and shows that investors are looking beyond its crypto business.
Prediction markets have become another growth driver. Bernstein expects Robinhood’s revenue in this segment to rise from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026. Activity around the World Cup has already pushed daily prediction market volumes to $4.8 billion.
At the same time, crypto remains important for Robinhood. In June, the company completed its $180 million acquisition of WonderFi, gaining regulated access to Canada’s crypto market. The deal added Bitbuy, Coinsquare and around 300,000 funded customer accounts to Robinhood.
What else Bitcoin correlates with
Bitcoin is often compared not only with individual stocks, but also with other risk assets. Many market participants track its relationship with the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 and technology stocks. The logic is simple: when investors are willing to take risks, they often buy both cryptocurrencies and growth stocks. When the market moves away from risk, both segments usually come under pressure.
Another important reference point is the U.S. Dollar Index, or DXY, as well as U.S. Treasury yields and expectations for Fed interest rates. A strong dollar and high rates often reduce interest in Bitcoin because investors choose more conservative instruments. But this relationship is not constant: at times, BTC reacts more strongly to its own factors, including spot ETF inflows, halvings, whale activity and regulatory news.
As a reminder, in March, Robinhood launched a $1.5 billion share buyback program.
This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.
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