Cardano at a turning point: Recovery or further decline?
While Charles Hoskinson continues to promise a technological breakthrough and even claims that ADA could one day surpass Bitcoin, the market is asking a different question: is this the beginning of a recovery or a last attempt to revive the ecosystem?
The biggest recent development for Cardano is the launch of Ouroboros Leios, the network's most significant upgrade in years. The new architecture is expected to increase throughput from 4.5 KB/s to 200 KB/s, representing an improvement of roughly 30 to 65 times.
Leios is only one part of the broader Cardano Vision 2026 roadmap, which includes research into post-quantum cryptography, Layer 2 solutions, zero-knowledge technologies, decentralized identity, network scalability, and user experience improvements.
Despite the launch of the Leios Musashi Dojo testnet, daily transaction counts have remained around 25,000, while the number of active addresses is hovering near four-month lows. This suggests that investors are waiting for real network adoption rather than technological promises alone.
Death cross raises downside risks
On the weekly chart, ADA has formed a death cross, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing below the 200-day SMA. Similar patterns have appeared before, but instead of triggering a major sell-off, they were followed by a period of consolidation and eventually renewed growth.
At the moment, ADA remains significantly weaker than Bitcoin and many other leading altcoins. The nearest support level is $0.135, which is likely to be the key level to watch over the next month.
If this support fails, the next downside target is $0.075—more than 94% below the local high reached in early 2024 and over 97% below Cardano's all-time high.
The RSI (14) is currently in oversold territory, which has historically signaled the beginning of consolidation and modest technical rebounds. However, the broader weakness of both the cryptocurrency market and Cardano itself may continue to weigh on the price.
Hoskinson's optimism faces market skepticism
Not long ago, Charles Hoskinson warned that parts of the Cardano ecosystem could eventually be shut down. Now, however, he argues that Cardano is one of the most technologically advanced blockchains and could eventually outperform Bitcoin.
Hoskinson has always been known for making bold public statements. However, this apparent inconsistency is beginning to undermine investor confidence.
While Cardano is rolling out its biggest network upgrade in years, competing blockchains already offer higher transaction throughput and more mature DeFi ecosystems. That is why Leios will ultimately have to prove its value through real-world network activity rather than ambitious presentations.
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