Bitcoin price prediction: $61,936 resistance in focus as BTC trades flat

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Bitcoin gains 0.51% as ETF outflows grow

Highlights

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US saw the biggest single-day net outflow since May, with $691.7 million withdrawn on June 25.
Elevated redemptions from BlackRock's IBIT, totaling $265.2 million on June 26, add to supply pressures and weaken near-term sentiment.
Bitcoin trades above short-term averages but remains below longer-term resistance; market could consolidate between $58,579 and $61,936 over the next 2–3 days amid mixed momentum signals.

Institutional outflows drive liquidity concerns amid ETF redemptions

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States experienced their largest daily net outflows since late May, with $691.7 million withdrawn on June 25, 2026, as reported by Finance Yahoo. This significant capital flight reflects falling institutional participation and can undermine liquidity in listed Bitcoin products. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) also saw elevated redemptions, with $265.2 million exiting the ETF on June 26, according to Cryptobriefing, adding to the supply overhang and shaping near-term sentiment.

Intraday bullish momentum offset by overbought signals and weak trend

BTC/USD is holding above both the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the hourly chart, but remains well under the 200-period daily moving average. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $59,548 serves as immediate support, which anchors the current price action. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) provides a buy signal, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral, signaling limited trend strength. Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers at 55, indicating a modest buying bias, though Stochastic RSI, Commodity Channel Index (CCI), and Bull/Bear Power are overbought, highlighting strong buyer activity and the potential for short-term exhaustion. The Awesome Oscillator confirms bullish momentum, but mixed oscillator signals reveal some intraday divergence as volatility remains low.

Consolidation likely as upward bias hinges on key support

Over the next two to three trading days, BTC/USD is expected to trade within a typical volatility band between $58,579 and $61,936. Current technical and flow readings point to a 58% probability of an upward move, favoring further consolidation above key support levels. If resistance is overcome, upside continuation becomes probable, while a drop below $59,548 would put downside risks into focus.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, believes recent record outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs highlight shifting institutional sentiment but do not alter the core bullish structure for BTC. He sees short-term volatility driven by liquidity factors, though technicals suggest buyers remain engaged above key support. Analyst notes that consolidation is likely as the market digests fresh ETF redemptions. 'Despite visible institutional withdrawals, the broader macro and technical backdrop still favors upside — I expect BTC to hold firm and potentially advance once short-term pressure fades.'

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin's trend remained cautiously negative, constrained by weak risk appetite and sustained selling pressure. The persistence of major ETF outflows and only modest technical improvement reinforce a consolidative outlook, making the ability to hold above immediate support at $59,548 a critical factor for near-term direction.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.