Bitcoin consolidates as Fidelity and BlackRock Bitcoin ETF outflows weigh

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Bitcoin rises 0.15% to $60,390 today

Highlights

$696 million in net daily outflows hit U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by major redemptions from Fidelity and BlackRock, signaling reduced institutional participation.
A spike in U.S. PCE inflation triggered $1.26 billion in crypto liquidations, reinforcing institutional risk aversion and increasing spot market supply.
BTC/USD remains under technical pressure, trading below key averages, with a 74% probability of further downside towards the $56,141–$63,747 range.

Institutional outflows and inflation shocks deepen risk aversion

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest net daily outflows in months on June 26, with $696 million withdrawn from institutional products, highlighted by a $274 million redemption from Fidelity’s FBTC and $265 million from BlackRock’s IBIT, according to Analyticsinsight and Cryptobriefing. This shift in fund flows signals a reduction in institutional exposure and contributes to thinner liquidity, increasing the available supply on the open market. Additionally, unexpectedly high U.S. PCE inflation prompted $1.26 billion in forced liquidations across the crypto market, as reported by 99bitcoins, while a $444.5 million outflow from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF further reflected persistent institutional risk aversion.

Technical resistance and bearish signals amid low conviction

BTC/USD trades below the Simple Moving Average (SMA)-20 at $60,777 and SMA-50 at $62,491 on the 4-hour chart, with the long-term SMA-200 well above at $76,043. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $61,387 and serves as immediate resistance. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals a strong sell setup, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) points to ongoing bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds at 43.87, indicating continued selling interest. Both the Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power are in overbought territory, suggesting potential buyer exhaustion. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Awesome Oscillator are neutral, highlighting indecision in intraday sentiment. Low volatility, with price holding near the session high, signals limited conviction from either side despite this indicator divergence.

Downside risk prevails as volatility band limits trend

Over the next four trading days, BTC/USD is expected to remain confined within a $56,141 to $63,747 range, reflecting muted underlying conviction. Downside risk dominates, with a 74% probability of further declines, while a bullish reversal would require a decisive break above $61,387. A move below $56,141 could accelerate negative momentum, but the baseline scenario favors sideways consolidation within this volatility band.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that institutional outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and forced liquidations have weighed on sentiment and liquidity. He sees continued risk aversion from large players, but also recognizes that downside risk is now largely priced in near term. The analyst believes a constructive scenario can emerge if BTC/USD reclaims key resistance at $61,387. For now, he expects range trading with sideways consolidation. "If institutional selling slows and support holds above $56,141, I would see this as a healthy base for renewed upside momentum in the coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin's outlook was consolidative amid persistent institutional outflows and only modest technical improvement. Fresh data showing sustained ETF redemptions and elevated forced liquidations reinforce a structurally weaker environment, making downside risks to $56,141 a critical focus for the days ahead.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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