Bitcoin price prediction: Can $58,310 support hold? BTC trades flat

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Bitcoin drops 0.41% to $59,989 today

Highlights

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record weekly outflows of $1.79 billion, driven primarily by institutional selling and major single-day exits from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.
Despite ETF redemptions, holdings by public companies with over 1,000 BTC have risen to represent nearly 5% of total supply, indicating market allocation shifts.
BTC/USD continues to face selling pressure below key moving averages with high downside risk, trading within a projected $58,310 to $61,667 range for the next few sessions.

Record ETF outflows as institutions cut exposure and public holdings gain

A record weekly outflow of $1.79 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has been reported, with Benzinga attributing the move to sustained capital withdrawal by institutional investors. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF experienced its largest single-day outflow since inception, shedding $445 million in capital according to News Bitcoin, highlighting a notable loss of confidence among major ETF participants. In parallel, net redemptions have continued for seven consecutive sessions, while Cryptobriefing noted that public company holdings of over 1,000 BTC have increased to 49, now accounting for nearly 5% of the total Bitcoin supply, suggesting shifts in overall market allocation.

Bearish signals prevail as momentum weakens near resistance zone

BTC/USD is trading below the hourly MA-20 at $60,370 and MA-50 at $60,157, as well as the daily MA-200 at $75,880. Immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $60,398, with support emerging near $58,310. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47.09 with a Sell signal, and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) also indicates a Sell. Bull/Bear Power shows sellers dominate, although the Stochastic RSI is currently in oversold territory, providing scope for a technical rebound. Both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Average Directional Index (ADX) remain Neutral, and the Awesome Oscillator is not providing momentum confirmation, signaling a lack of clear direction.

Limited rebound odds as downside risk overshadows near-term outlook

Over the next two to three sessions, BTC/USD is expected to remain within a volatility band from $58,310 to $61,667. The probability of an upward breakout is considered very low, while downside risk remains elevated in the immediate term. The base case scenario foresees Bitcoin trading inside this corridor; a turn higher would require a break above resistance near $60,398, while renewed selling momentum could push the price below $58,310.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin under clear pressure from persistent ETF outflows and weak technical momentum. He notes that institutional sentiment remains cautious as seven days of net redemptions underscore a defensive market posture. Price action is capped below key moving averages with indicators showing limited support for a rebound. "Base case remains sideways inside $58,310–$61,667 with downside risk prevailing until we see strong demand returning from major players."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin’s outlook remained structurally weak amid persistent institutional outflows and subdued technical momentum. The latest record-setting ETF redemptions and prolonged streak of net withdrawals reinforce this bearish environment, making further downside pressure the key risk to monitor as BTC approaches critical support near $58,310.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.