Avalanche price prediction: Can $6.42–$6.83 range hold as AVAX climbs 7.58%?

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Avalanche jumps 7.58% to $6.57 today

Highlights

A large holder moved 1.2 million AVAX to a centralized exchange, raising short-term concerns about increased selling pressure.
Despite this substantial transfer, Avalanche's market absorbed the activity, indicating resilient trade flows and stable liquidity.
AVAX shows short- and medium-term bullish technical momentum, with price expected to stabilize between $6.42 and $6.83 over the next few days.

Large holder’s AVAX transfer drives caution despite resilient trade flows

A notable on-chain event has shaped recent sentiment for Avalanche, as a large holder transferred 1.2 million AVAX to a centralized exchange, according to Criptolog. Such transfers commonly signal the possibility of heightened selling activity, which can temporarily elevate liquidity and draw the attention of market participants. This movement impacts supply dynamics and signals caution among some investors, but the market has absorbed the action and remains anchored by ongoing trade flows.

Mixed momentum signals emerge as AVAX hovers over short-term support

On the hourly chart, AVAX/USD is trading above the 20-period moving average at $6.39 and the 50-period moving average at $6.31, while it remains below the long-term 200-period moving average at $9.92. The Ichimoku Kijun serves as immediate support at $6.32. Momentum signals are mixed: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59.19 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both issue Buy indications, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is Neutral, suggesting moderate conviction in the trend. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Bull/Bear Power reflect buyer dominance, but the Stochastic RSI and Awesome Oscillator (AO) remain Neutral. Some divergence appears on Stochastic RSI and AO, indicating underlying strength without an overbought condition.

Upside scenario favored as volatility band defines near-term risk

For the next 2 to 3 trading days, AVAX is likely to fluctuate within a volatility band of $6.42 to $6.83, with a very high probability of gains persisting in the near term. Should the price stabilize, consolidation within this range is expected. If upside momentum intensifies and AVAX breaks above the top of the band, a further push higher could develop. Conversely, a move below the $6.32 support would increase the risk of a downside pullback.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the recent inflow of AVAX to centralized exchanges as an important sentiment signal. He interprets the market's ability to absorb such a large transfer as a sign of ongoing confidence and robust demand. Near-term momentum and liquidity remain constructive, with technical signals confirming underlying buyer strength. "I see continued upside potential for AVAX as long as the $6.32 support holds and market flows remain healthy."

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche was experiencing sustained bearish momentum and subdued institutional engagement despite ongoing ecosystem developments. The recent shift above key moving averages and absorption of large holder outflows signal emerging bullish potential, making the $6.32 support level crucial to monitor for signs of trend continuation or a reversal.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.