What is behind Bittensor's recent gain in value today

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Bittensor surges 10.09% today

Highlights

ETF filings by Bitwise and Grayscale, along with new custody options, are increasing Bittensor’s institutional visibility.
Following token halving, TAO daily emissions dropped to 3,600 and most circulating supply remains locked in staking.
TAO/USD remains in a bearish trend below major moving averages, with a high likelihood of sideways or downward movement in the $201.2–$229.2 range.

Token supply dynamics shift as asset manager activity intensifies

New ETF filings from Bitwise and Grayscale, along with expanded institutional custody through FalconX’s support for subnet-level staking, have increased the profile of Bittensor. Recent paperwork for a TAO Strategy ETF and ongoing infrastructure developments, such as new exchange listings, mark further progress. Following Bittensor’s token halving, daily emissions fell to 3,600 TAO and most of the circulating supply remains staked, while filings from major asset managers continue to keep the token in focus.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Bittensor’s rebound as fragile despite the recent 10.09% price jump. He notes that TAO trades below all major moving averages and that momentum indicators remain decisively negative. Kharitonov highlights that ETF news and staking developments have stirred sentiment, but dominant selling pressure persists. The technical outlook signals sustained risk to the downside, with little evidence of real trend reversal. He adds, "Until Bittensor overcomes key resistances and reverses its technical signals, buyers should stay defensive and avoid chasing short-lived rallies."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes institutional engagement and new ETF proposals bring strong bullish undertones for Bittensor. He sees recent infrastructure momentum and staking dynamics as solid groundwork for future advances. Karapetjanc points out that, despite short-term volatility, long-term prospects are significantly enhanced by sustained institutional interest. He emphasizes that the market structure offers attractive accumulation opportunities. He says, "With asset managers and improved custody expanding access, further growth in Bittensor looks well supported for forward-thinking investors."

Bearish trend holds as TAO lingers below major moving averages

TAO/USD is positioned below its 20-day ($228.25), 50-day ($241.59), and 200-day ($243.13) moving averages, signaling seller control across all time frames. This bearish setup is confirmed by alignment between the MA-50 and MA-200, pointing to a sustained negative trend. Immediate resistance remains at $228.25, with key support at $217.5. Momentum indicators are negative: the MACD remains on a sell signal, the ADX highlights a weak overall trend, and the RSI, CCI, and Stochastic RSI all register oversold readings. The Bull/Bear Power indicator at -5.79 confirms sellers dominate, with intraday price strength sitting at the higher end of today’s volatile range, even as the price advanced sharply.

Earlier, analysts noted that Bittensor’s rally was fueled by heightened trading activity and improving market participation, signaling a shift from prior downside pressure. The latest combination of institutional developments and persistent technical weakness introduces both heightened volatility and downside risk, making a potential break below $201.2 the critical scenario for traders to monitor in the days ahead.

Source of Data: TAO Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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