Kalshi trading volume climbs to record June high as World Cup boosts prediction markets

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Kalshi trading record World Cup

Highlights

Kalshi's trading volume reached a record $9.4 billion in June, up from $5.3 billion in May, as the World Cup boosted prediction activity.
Canada’s Round of 16 match against Morocco generated more than $48 million in trading volume on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket by Saturday.
U.S. regulatory scrutiny intensified with states pushing to regulate or halt prediction markets, while the CFTC and Congress debated federal versus state oversight in June.

World Cup drives June trading surge

As reported by Cointelegraph, DefiLlama data shows Kalshi records nearly $9.4 billion in trading volume in June, up from about $5.3 billion in May, while Polymarket International climbs to roughly $4.3 billion from about $3.5 billion a month earlier.

The tournament begins on June 11 and is the first FIFA World Cup to feature 48 teams, up from 32 in previous editions. CNBC reports the competition becomes the biggest driver of prediction market trading in June, with Dune Analytics showing record notional trading volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket.

The knockout stage is attracting some of the heaviest activity. Canada’s Round of 16 match against Morocco, scheduled for Saturday, generates more than $48 million in trading volume on Kalshi and more than $26.8 million on Polymarket at the time of writing.

The United States’ Round of 16 match also draws strong trader interest. Kalshi’s market on which team will advance generates more than $2.1 million in volume, while a comparable market on Polymarket attracts around $1.6 million as of Saturday.

Regulatory pressure expands in U.S. and Europe

The jump in trading volume comes as prediction markets remain at the center of a widening legal and regulatory debate in the U.S. By March, nearly a dozen U.S. states have already moved against companies including Kalshi and Polymarket, with some seeking to halt the markets while others push to place them under existing gambling laws and state tax frameworks.

Federal regulators reject state attempts to police prediction markets. The following month, CFTC Chair Michael Selig accuses states of pursuing illegal enforcement actions against federally regulated exchanges, arguing Congress gives the agency sole authority over commodity derivatives markets, including prediction markets.

The debate broadens in June when casino operators, tribal organizations and labor groups urge Congress to remove sports-event contracts from the CFTC’s authority through an amendment to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. They argue the contracts should remain under state gambling laws and existing gaming oversight.

Europe is taking a different approach. On Friday, the European Securities and Markets Authority reminds firms that many event contracts may already fall under existing restrictions on binary options, saying regulation depends on a product’s characteristics rather than the event contract label.

In our earlier coverage of European regulators’ push to keep up with fast-moving AI in finance, we outlined warnings from central bankers and watchdogs that agentic AI is advancing faster than traditional rulemaking. We also noted concerns that autonomous systems could amplify volatility during market stress, prompting calls for safeguards such as circuit breakers or kill switches to protect market integrity.

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