CryptoQuant says bitcoin rebound remains a bear-market recovery

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Bitcoin rebound bear-market

Highlights

CryptoQuant identifies bitcoin's rebound from $57,700 to near $63,000 as a bear-market recovery, not a new bull trend, citing onchain data.
July's historically positive trading and an uptick in CryptoQuant's 30-day demand measure—recovering from a 650,000 BTC drop—have improved near-term upside risk.
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index remains at 20, well below the bullish threshold of 60, signaling persistent weak market conditions despite partial recovery indicators.

Onchain data points to limited recovery

TheBlock reports that CryptoQuant views bitcoin's recent rise from around $57,700 to near $63,000 as a bear-market recovery, not the start of a new bull trend. The analytics firm says the cryptocurrency has regained the $60,000 level as a key support area, helped by July's historically positive trading pattern, especially in bear-market years such as 2018 and 2022.

Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research, says July has been one of bitcoin's more consistently positive months over the past decade, with the effect more visible during down-cycles. He says bitcoin enters July 2026 after hitting a bear-market low, which tilts near-term risk toward further upside.

CryptoQuant also says demand conditions are improving. Its 30-day total bitcoin demand measure, which combines spot and perpetual futures activity, has rebounded from its sharpest contraction since 2022 and is now close to neutral after falling by about 650,000 BTC in early June.

Market backdrop remains bearish

Speculative futures demand has turned slightly positive, while spot demand is contracting at its slowest pace since mid-May, according to the firm. CryptoQuant also says the Coinbase Premium Index, used as a gauge of U.S. spot demand, has recovered from deeply negative levels in early June to minus 0.062, suggesting selling pressure on U.S. exchanges is easing and institutional demand is stabilizing.

The firm adds that bitcoin's recent undervaluation leaves room for more recovery. Traders' unrealized profit margin fell below minus 24% in early June, well below CryptoQuant's minus 12% undervaluation threshold, a level that has often aligned with local bottoms when short-term holders capitulate.

Even so, CryptoQuant says broader conditions remain weak. Its Bull Score Index, which combines onchain, market and valuation indicators, stands at 20, still deep in bearish territory and far below the 60 level the firm says is needed to support a sustainable rally and confirm a true bull market.

In our earlier article on CleanSpark (CLSK), we reviewed the miner’s July 2026 operational update, including 614 BTC mined, a record 50 EH/s hashrate, and total holdings rising to 13,924 BTC. We also noted that despite the production-driven boost in attention, CLSK’s technical picture remained fragile, with strong resistance overhead and a higher probability of range-bound or downside consolidation unless key levels were reclaimed.

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