Why is Pi down today? Support test after major PI token unlock

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Pi slides 8.39% to $0.0902 today

Highlights

A major unlock of 103.7 million PI tokens has significantly increased circulating supply, intensifying short-term selling pressure risk.
Pi Network is expanding its ecosystem with cross-chain bridge development and launching PiVerify, an AI-driven Web3 identity service.
PI/USD trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum; price is expected to range between $0.0861 and $0.0943 with downside favored.

Supply surge from token unlock drives selling pressure and feature rollout

A major unlock of 103.7 million PI tokens was reported by Coingape, significantly increasing the circulating supply and introducing heightened potential for near-term selling pressure. Pi Network has also been developing a cross-chain bridge to facilitate interoperability of Pi Coin with other blockchain networks and decentralized applications, a move aimed at expanding its use cases. Additionally, Pi Network launched PiVerify, a digital identity verification service leveraging its hybrid AI-and-human KYC infrastructure, furthering its presence in Web3 identity solutions.

Bearish momentum and oversold signals as technicals reinforce resistance

On the hourly chart, PI is trading below the MA-20 at $0.097 and the MA-50 at $0.098, while it remains well beneath the MA-200 at $0.1676 on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.0966, and key support is found at $0.0861, with the upper bound of the near-term range around $0.0943. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is on Sell, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) reads as Neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 26.96, and both the Stochastic RSI and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are in oversold territory. Bull/Bear Power indicates continued seller dominance intraday, while the Awesome Oscillator is Neutral.

High downside risk as consolidation narrows bullish reversal odds

Over the next two to three trading days, price is expected to consolidate within the $0.0861 to $0.0943 range, based on recent volatility levels. The probability of upward movement is estimated at less than 20%, while the probability of a further decline exceeds 80%. A short-term bullish reversal would require a confirmed breakout above $0.0966, whereas a decisive move below $0.0861 would reinforce the downward trend.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the recent PI token unlock as a significant catalyst for short-term market pressure. He sees ongoing development in interoperability and identity solutions as positive for Pi Network’s fundamentals and long-term ecosystem credibility. However, Karapetjanc notes that current downward momentum and sentiment will likely dominate in the near term. "Despite structural progress in the project, near-term headwinds are strong — I remain constructive for the future but expect consolidation to continue unless resistance at $0.0966 is broken convincingly."

Earlier, analysts noted that Pi was struggling with persistent selling pressure and limited prospects for a near-term reversal amid bearish momentum. The recent major token unlock, combined with ongoing technical weakness, intensifies downside risks and traders should be especially vigilant for a potential breakdown below $0.0861 that could trigger further declines.

Source of Data: PI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.