TD Cowen cuts Smarter Web price target on revised bitcoin outlook in UK market

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TD Cowen cuts Smarter Web target

Highlights

TD Cowen cuts Smarter Web price target 36% to £0.64 per share, reflecting revised bitcoin assumptions and projected year-end 2026 bitcoin holdings of £229 million.
Smarter Web holds 2,878 BTC and is positioned as the UK's leading public bitcoin treasury company, leveraging pound-denominated offerings for competitive advantage.
TD Cowen's base case forecasts bitcoin reaching $140,000 by December 2026, with Smarter Web expected to increase bitcoin holdings per fully diluted share in this scenario.

Valuation reset reflects bitcoin and treasury assumptions

As reported by The Block, citing TD Cowen in a note to clients, the bank revises its target after incorporating bitcoin forecast assumptions published last month, alongside updated treasury activity and dilution projections.

The analysts, led by Lance Vitanza, assign £63 million to treasury operations and value projected year-end 2026 bitcoin holdings at £229 million. After accounting for projected net debt of £18 million, they derive a target equity value of £274 million, or £0.64 per share based on 426 million fully diluted shares.

London Stock Exchange data show Smarter Web shares trading at £0.287 on Monday morning. At that level, TD Cowen's revised target still points to significant upside despite the 36% cut from the previous £1.00 target.

UK bitcoin treasury positioning remains central

TD Cowen maintains its broader investment thesis that Smarter Web is a public bitcoin treasury company focused on accumulating bitcoin and increasing bitcoin holdings on a fully diluted per-share basis through equity, debt and other financing tools. The company most recently discloses holdings of 2,878 BTC.

The analysts say Smarter Web has established itself as a leading public bitcoin treasury company in the UK, arguing that its pound-denominated offerings provide a competitive advantage for investors based in the UK or transacting mainly in sterling. TD Cowen also expects the company to increase bitcoin holdings per fully diluted share in a favorable bitcoin price environment and to outperform spot bitcoin ETPs.

Its base case assumes bitcoin reaches about $140,000 by December 2026, around 15% above the prior all-time high, while bitcoin acquisition gradually returns to the pace seen in fiscal 2025. The bank also says the appointment of Oliver Hewett as chief financial officer strengthens Smarter Web's financial and capital markets capabilities, citing his experience in institutional investment banking, financial strategy, governance, regulatory compliance and corporate finance.

In our earlier article on BP’s share price outlook, we covered the company’s decision to suspend its $750 million quarterly buyback to prioritize reducing net debt. We noted that while the move can lessen near-term support for the stock, it underscores balance-sheet discipline, with technical indicators still pointing to a largely rangebound setup around key support levels.

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