Hyperliquid pullback: Downside targets to watch

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Hyperliquid drops 7.62% to $58.43 today

Highlights

Hyperliquid's HIP-4 upgrade enables open user-created prediction markets by requiring a 500,000 HYPE token stake for six months.
Market capitalization surged to $15.95 billion and recent net inflows totaled $350 million, but price remains pressured by broader selling.
Bearish momentum and oversold signals dominate, with HYPE/USD likely consolidating between $55.97 and $60.44 amid high volatility.

Market expansion and inflows as HIP-4 targets supply and access

Hyperliquid has announced a major expansion into permissionless decentralized prediction markets through the forthcoming HIP-4 upgrade, which will enable any user to create their own markets by staking 500,000 HYPE tokens locked for six months. This move, first deploying on testnet with a mainnet launch to follow, broadens access beyond validators and could tighten circulating supply, potentially impacting long-term liquidity, according to Coingape, Coinpaper, and Cryptoast. Additionally, The Block reported that Hyperliquid funds have recently attracted $350 million in net inflows, while Diariobitcoin noted market capitalization reached $15.95 billion following the HIP-4 announcement — though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold momentum intensifies as price faces technical resistance

On the technical front, HYPE/USD is below its MA-20 ($61.18) and MA-50 ($61.62) on the h1 timeframe, while remaining above MA-200 ($44.07). The Ichimoku Kijun at $61.25 marks immediate resistance, with the price trading near today's low amidst pronounced volatility. MACD and ADX remain on Sell signals, highlighting dominant negative momentum. RSI is deeply oversold at 26.75, confirmed by oversold conditions on Stochastic RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power. The Awesome Oscillator is pointing lower, aligning with the ongoing intraday downside, and no significant bullish divergence has been detected.

Downside risk heightened as tight range limits bullish scenarios

For the next 2–3 sessions, HYPE/USD is anticipated to consolidate within the $55.97 to $60.44 range. The probability of an upward move is low, while the risk of additional downside is markedly elevated in the current context. The main scenario favors choppy trading within this band. A decisive break above $61.25 would be necessary to trigger any bullish momentum, whereas a fall below $55.97 could signal a new wave of strong selling pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, observes that Hyperliquid's decisive move into permissionless prediction markets marks a turning point for platform utility and long-term engagement. He sees robust institutional inflows and a strong market capitalization as signs of strengthening fundamental demand, even as near-term trading signals remain weak. The protocol upgrade could limit token supply, offering a potential liquidity tailwind if macro conditions stabilize. 'Given the scale of recent developments, I remain constructive on HYPE’s medium-term prospects, provided price can stabilize above key support and broader confidence persists.'

Earlier, analysts noted that Hyperliquid continued to face persistent selling pressure despite ongoing institutional inflows and ecosystem growth. The introduction of permissionless prediction markets via HIP-4 and the latest wave of capital inflows add a new dimension to the outlook, with traders now closely watching whether restricted circulating supply will help stabilize price action or if further downside volatility will continue to dominate in the near term.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.