ADA shows modest gains supported by recent Van Rossem hard fork upgrade: weekly report

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Cardano rises 5.19% this week

Highlights

Cardano remains under pronounced medium- and long-term downward pressure, trading below all major weekly moving averages.
Technical indicators show a strong bearish momentum, with selling activity prevailing and no buy signals present.
ADA is likely to fluctuate between $0.152 and $0.188 over the coming week, with a bearish bias and very low probability of upside breakout.

Network upgrade boosts sentiment as bridge exploit spares mainnet funds

Cardano activated the Van Rossem hard fork on July 18, 2026, marking its first network upgrade approved through on-chain governance involving DReps, stake pool operators, and the Constitutional Committee. This upgrade brings improved smart contract efficiencies, lower execution costs, new cost models, and enhanced node security without requiring action from ADA holders. Additionally, a recent exploit targeted the Wanchain bridge to BNB Chain, though the Cardano mainnet and user funds were not affected.

Bearish technical bias persists as ADA remains under key averages

Weekly technical indicators confirm a prevailing bearish environment for ADA. Both MACD (Strong Sell, -0.071) and ADX (Sell, 28.252) underscore persistent downward momentum, while RSI at 36.07, Stochastic RSI (Neutral), and CCI (-82.23, Sell) indicate the asset remains under pressure from sellers without being deeply oversold. Negative Bull/Bear Power readings reinforce this bearish bias. ADA continues to trade below its weekly MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with the MA-20 acting as the closest dynamic resistance. The current weekly range sits between $0.152 (support) and $0.188 (resistance), capturing the scope of recent volatility (12.66%).

Limited upside likely as bearish setup narrows weekly trading range

For the next 7 days, technical signals suggest a low probability of significant upward movement, with less than a 20% chance of price appreciation. The most likely scenario is that ADA remains within a sideways band between $0.152 and $0.188, consistent with its current weekly momentum and volatility. A decisive move above $0.188 is required to break the downtrend, but this is improbable without a shift in indicator signals. If ADA breaks below the $0.152 support, further downside is likely, as confirmed by strongly negative weekly trend indicators.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, sees Cardano’s recovery this week as limited by clear technical headwinds. Despite the successful Van Rossem hard fork and a brief price uptick, downside momentum remains dominant, with indicators like MACD and ADX signaling persistent selling pressure. The analyst notes that while news flow is constructive for Cardano’s fundamentals, it has yet to translate into a change in macro or technical structure. "Unless ADA can break decisively above $0.188 in the coming week, I remain on the sidelines and favor tactical patience with downside risks still prevailing."

Previously it was reported that the Wanchain-operated cross-chain bridge connecting Cardano and BNB Chain suffered a significant security breach, though the Cardano mainnet remained unaffected. Against this backdrop, while Cardano’s network resilience is highlighted, traders should closely monitor the $0.152 support level, as a break below could accelerate further downside beyond the current weekly range.

Source of Data: ADA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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