Van Rossem hard fork protocol upgrade: Can ADA break $0.18 resistance?

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Cardano surges 8.19% to $0.176 today

Highlights

Cardano completed its Van Rossem hard fork, upgrading to Protocol Version 11 to boost smart contract efficiency and lower costs.
This marks Cardano’s first major onchain governance-led upgrade, ratified with 79% support, reinforcing decentralized decision-making.
ADA/USD shows strong intraday bullish momentum, with price expected to trade within $0.173–$0.18 and immediate support at $0.167.

Onchain governance boost as hard fork drives Cardano upgrade

Cardano activated the Van Rossem hard fork on July 19, 2026, upgrading its network to Protocol Version 11 after wide approval through onchain community governance, according to Cryptonews. The update delivers improved smart contract efficiency, lower execution costs, and enhanced security for stake pools, factors that increase the platform’s appeal and practical use for developers and stakeholders. Coindesk highlighted that this marks Cardano’s first major upgrade fully proposed and ratified onchain by delegated representatives, with 79% support, strengthening the network’s track record in decentralized governance. The technical enhancements also lay groundwork for future scaling initiatives and further ecosystem growth.

Buyer dominance as rally nears resistance and overbought levels

On the hourly chart, ADA is trading above both the MA-20 and MA-50, while it remains well below the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. Notably, immediate technical support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.167. MACD and ADX both confirm strengthening buyer control, while RSI reads 67.126, indicating a buying bias. However, both Stochastic RSI and CCI are in overbought territory, suggesting the current rally may be nearing short-term exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power signals sustained intraday buyer dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator supports this prevailing uptrend.

Upside breakout favored as volatility constrains ADA range

In the next 2 to 3 trading days, ADA/USD is expected to oscillate within a $0.173 to $0.18 range under typical volatility conditions. The probability of an upward breakout is judged to be very high, with the main bullish scenario targeting sustained gains if the price decisively clears $0.18. On the downside, a drop below immediate support at $0.167 would likely trigger renewed seller activity and a move toward lower levels.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, believes fundamental and sentiment drivers are now turning clearly positive for Cardano after the Van Rossem hard fork. He sees efficient onchain upgrades and decisive community governance as strong signs of ecosystem maturity. Macro and technical outlooks align, with bullish momentum supported by sustained demand and new investor confidence. 'This confluence of technical advancements and rising bullish sentiment gives me conviction that ADA could break above $0.18 and sustain higher levels in the near term,' says the expert.

Earlier, analysts noted that Cardano was locked in a persistent bearish trend despite ongoing ecosystem developments and accumulation by large holders. The recent Van Rossem upgrade and pronounced shift in technical momentum now signal an improving outlook, with a decisive breakout above $0.18 emerging as the key level that could confirm a sustained bullish reversal.

Source of Data: ADA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.