Bitcoin drops from five-week high as geopolitical risk tests renewed ETF demand
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $203 million in net inflows in the latest reported session, extending their positive run to six consecutive trading days. This renewed institutional demand helped Bitcoin break above $66,000, although the recovery remains modest compared with the combined $6.9 billion in net outflows registered during May and June.
Sustained inflows will therefore be needed to support another attempt to extend the rally.
Inflation outlook complicates Fed expectations
The latest U.S. data present a mixed backdrop for risk assets. Headline CPI rose 3.5% year over year in June, largely reflecting higher energy costs, while core inflation slowed to 2.6%. At the same time, nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 and unemployment held at 4.2%, indicating softer employment growth without a sharp deterioration in the labor market. These figures preserve expectations of a less restrictive Fed over time, but renewed energy inflation may prevent policymakers from signaling rapid easing.
Middle East escalation raises volatility risk
The conflict between the United States and Iran remains an important source of uncertainty. Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked tankers have increased risks around the Bab el-Mandeb route while disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues to affect Gulf exports. Brent crude briefly moved above $100 per barrel, intensifying concerns that higher fuel and transportation costs could keep global inflation elevated. Bitcoin has not behaved as a reliable safe haven during the latest escalation, leaving it vulnerable to broader risk reduction if energy prices continue to rise.
Technical pressure builds near key support
The hourly chart shows selling pressure emerging after Bitcoin failed to hold gains near $66,500 to $67,000. The price has fallen toward the $64,800 to $65,000 support area, close to the longer-term moving average. A successful defense of this zone could attract fresh buying and support another move toward $65,800, followed by $66,500 to $67,000. A confirmed break below $64,800 would weaken the recovery and expose $64,000, while deeper selling could return attention to the $63,500 to $63,000 region.
As I warned in the article Bitcoin retreats from $67,000 resistance as buyers lose momentum, the risks of further downside remain in place.
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