Bitcoin price forecast: Support pressure increases on ETF outflows

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Bitcoin drops 3.06% to $63,462 today

Highlights

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US saw $465 million net outflows over two days, ending a seven-session inflow streak and signaling renewed institutional selling.
Major corporate Bitcoin treasury holdings remained unchanged for five weeks, despite firms like Strategy Inc. raising new capital but not adding to BTC positions.
Bitcoin trades below key moving averages with strong bearish momentum, and the likely 2–3 day price range is $62,761 to $64,163 amid continued selling pressure.

Institutional outflows increase as ETF demand wanes

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States experienced more than $465 million in net outflows on July 23 and July 24, 2026, ending a seven-session streak of inflows and pointing to renewed institutional withdrawals, according to Bloomberg. This shift in ETF flows reduces managed asset exposure and signals a waning of near-term demand from major funds. Coinpaper reported that Bitcoin holdings at major corporate treasuries, including Strategy Inc. with 843,775 BTC, have stayed unchanged for five consecutive weeks, while Decrypt noted that Strategy Inc. raised significant cash and equity capital but did not add to its Bitcoin position during this period.

Bearish bias intensifies with momentum signals and resistance levels

BTC faces technical pressure with the price positioned below MA-20 ($64,445), MA-50 ($64,685) on the hourly chart, and below the long-term MA-200 ($72,037) on the daily chart. The immediate resistance level is at the Ichimoku Kijun of $64,402, while support is seen near $62,761. Momentum indicators present a pronounced bearish bias: MACD and ADX both flash sell signals, RSI is deeply oversold at 27.41, and Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power indicate persistent selling conditions. The Awesome Oscillator also confirms prevailing negative momentum, and price action shows sellers holding near-term control.

Downside break risk rises as trading narrows to consolidation band

Over the next 2–3 trading days, BTC is expected to consolidate between $62,761 and $64,163, representing the typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward move remains low at 26%, while a downward break is more likely at 74%. Price stabilization within this range is the baseline scenario; a bullish reversal would require a sustained move above $64,402 resistance, whereas a decisive loss of support near $62,761 could open room for further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees sustained technical and sentiment weakness in Bitcoin. Outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and stagnant corporate holdings point to poor institutional demand. Key indicators and moving averages confirm the bearish setup. He concludes: "As long as BTC stays below key resistance at $64,402 and demand signals remain muted, the bears remain in control."

Earlier, analysts noted that the evolving energy mix in Bitcoin mining has shifted industry debates away from environmental concerns toward operational sustainability and competitiveness. The current technical and ETF-driven pressures highlight how broader market forces, rather than mining dynamics, now pose the most immediate downside risk, making a sustained move below $62,761 an important trigger for renewed caution.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.