Kalshi and Polymarket trading volume tops $50 billion

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Kalshi and Polymarket trading volume

The clear leader

Kalshi remained the largest platform by trading volume. Users traded $37.7 billion worth of contracts during the month, representing a 14% increase from June.

At the same time, the Polymarket ecosystem saw a noticeable shift in activity toward its U.S. platform. Trading volume on Polymarket’s main international platform fell 26% to $7.9 billion, while volume on Polymarket US jumped 54% to $5 billion.

Together, the two Polymarket platforms processed $12.9 billion in trades, down from $14 billion a month earlier.

Polymarket’s U.S. platform operates under the supervision of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In May, the platform removed its waitlist restrictions and opened access to all U.S. users.

This allowed American traders who had previously bypassed regional restrictions to use the international version of the service to move legally to the regulated platform.

Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane previously estimated that U.S. traders accounted for around 30% of the trading volume on Polymarket’s main offshore platform during the 12 months ending April 30, 2026.

2026 World Cup frenzy

One of the main drivers of July’s growth was the FIFA World Cup, which ran from June 11 to July 19.

Kalshi’s market on the final between Spain and Argentina alone attracted around $1.9 billion. On Polymarket, trading volume for the contract predicting the World Cup winner approached $4 billion.

However, interest in open positions declined sharply after the tournament ended. Combined open interest across the three platforms fell from around $2 billion at the beginning of July to $1.2 billion by the end of the month.

What limits prediction markets

Prediction markets regularly face regulatory challenges. In many countries, authorities classify such services as a form of gambling that requires a local license. Access to Polymarket has been restricted or blocked in France, Belgium, Switzerland, Poland, Spain, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands, Germany, Romania, and several other countries. In France, the regulator explicitly classified prediction platforms as illegal gambling services and ordered internet providers to block Polymarket in July 2026.

Regulators’ main concern is that users risk real money on uncertain events while the platforms do not comply with the requirements imposed on traditional betting operators. These include identity and age verification, protections for minors and vulnerable users, betting limits, and self-exclusion mechanisms. Spain, for example, temporarily blocked Polymarket and Kalshi while investigating the platforms because neither company had authorization to provide gambling services in the country.

Polymarket is also joining Blockchain.com in targeting the FIFA World Cup prediction market.

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