Support test ahead: Can Raydium avoid deeper losses?

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Raydium drops 7.25% to $1.57 today

Highlights

Raydium repurchased $640,788 in RAY tokens on September 9, raising total cumulative buybacks to $2.1 million.
StonkFun token launches consolidated on Raydium LaunchLab have increased protocol trading volumes and fees.
RAY/USD fell 7.25% and trades near session lows with mixed momentum signals and an expected range of $1.374 to $2.087 over the next 2 to 3 sessions.

Buyback and launch activity boost efforts as selling persists

Raydium undertook its largest-ever buyback on September 9, repurchasing $640,788 in RAY tokens and bringing total cumulative buybacks to $2.1 million, according to Coincentral. This action reduces the circulating supply and signals the deployment of protocol revenues toward tokenholder returns. In addition, the consolidation of StonkFun token launches onto Raydium’s LaunchLab has increased protocol trading volumes and fees, as reported by Themerkle. These developments suggest corporate initiatives aimed at supporting token value and ecosystem activity, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold momentum builds as resistance limits upside bids

RAY/USD currently trades below the MA-20 ($1.6204), while remaining above the MA-50 ($1.5503) on the H1 chart and above the MA-200 ($0.6912) on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun is positioned at $1.6195 and acts as immediate resistance. The RSI is at 45.88, and both the Commodity Channel Index and Stochastic RSI sit in oversold territory, highlighting downside momentum. Bull/Bear Power readings indicate seller dominance, while the ADX suggests underlying buyer strength. Meanwhile, MACD remains neutral, and the Awesome Oscillator points lower, reflecting the day's weakness and emphasizing a volatile, two-sided market.

Sideways movement expected as breakout risk remains elevated

Over the next two to three sessions, price is expected to consolidate within the $1.374 to $2.087 range. With a 55% probability of an upward move, the baseline scenario favors continued sideways movement within this volatility band. Should RAY/USD clear immediate resistance, bullish momentum could resume, while a break below support would expose the asset to further declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees positive structural signals in Raydium’s aggressive buyback and LaunchLab integration. He believes these actions strengthen the token’s long-term value and build user engagement, despite current short-term weakness. The analyst notes that current downside pressure provides tactical opportunities if macro sentiment steadies. 'The fundamentals are robust and should support a rebound once the market digests recent volatility,' Karapetjanc says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Raydium was exhibiting strong bullish momentum supported by robust on-chain activity and persistent buying pressure. The current price action marks a shift, as downside momentum and volatility characterize trading, making immediate resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun a critical level for traders to monitor over the near term.

Source of Data: RAY Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.