Weiss Ratings expects Bitcoin to correct before next crypto bull phase

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Weiss expects Bitcoin correction

Highlights

Weiss Ratings projects a 15% correction from Bitcoin's recent high, with support near $70,000, as price runs ahead of the Japanese M2 money supply model.
A bullish confirmation for Bitcoin requires a decisive move above $82,000 to $83,000, as recent price action failed to clear this key cycle high.
Regulatory flexibility from the SEC and CFTC, including the Innovation Exemption and derivatives relief, enhances institutional crypto participation despite lack of permanent legislation.

Liquidity model and price thresholds

As reported by Weiss Ratings, its current framework links Bitcoin's price action to Japanese M2 money supply with a lag of roughly 84 days, and the token is seen as running ahead of that pattern for several weeks. On that basis, the firm expects Bitcoin to move back into alignment through a correction that could extend into early November.

The outlook calls for about a 15% pullback from the recent high, placing support near $70,000. Weiss Ratings says the bear-market bottom is already behind the market, but adds that Bitcoin still has not delivered a confirmed bullish breakout because it recently tested, but did not clear, its last major cycle high around $82,000 to $83,000.

Bitcoin is now trading in the $78,000 to $81,000 range, up from the mid-$70,000s earlier in the week. Weiss Ratings maintains that a decisive move above $82,000 to $83,000 would mark a genuinely bullish signal rather than short-term volatility.

Regulatory shift and market implications

The firm says this week's policy developments in Washington support crypto market liquidity even without passage of the Clarity Act. After the bill failed, the SEC issued what it calls an Innovation Exemption, a five-year order allowing approved trading venues to trade tokenized versions of stocks through on-chain liquidity pools instead of a traditional order book.

The CFTC then issued relief intended to let crypto wallets and trading apps connect users to regulated derivatives without registering as brokers themselves. Weiss Ratings argues that both agencies acted using existing authority, creating temporary but meaningful forward movement for institutional participation even though Congress did not pass permanent legislation.

Weiss Ratings also says the Fed's rate increase did not disrupt the crypto rally because markets had already priced in the move. The firm sees regulatory flexibility and liquidity conditions as supportive for the sector more broadly, while continuing to favor Ethereum and Solana over Bitcoin on a technical basis in the next phase of the cycle.

Our earlier coverage of the SEC’s temporary regulatory path for tokenized stocks explained how the move opened a limited but meaningful route for blockchain-based versions of traditional shares after the Clarity Act stalled. We noted that the shift boosted sentiment around tokenization and pointed to crypto-linked platforms and exchanges as key beneficiaries as barriers to digital-asset activity ease even without new legislation.

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