Bitcoin technical analysis: Resistance test at $81,038 limits upside momentum

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Bitcoin slides 0.69% to $80,494 today

Highlights

Bitcoin surged past $81,000 as a short squeeze forced over $243 million in short position liquidations.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $433.03 million in net inflows, with institutional demand led by Fidelity's FBTC.
BTC/USD is expected to trade in a range of $78,932 to $82,722 as technical signals are mixed and price remains near session lows.

Short squeeze and ETF inflows fuel mixed institutional and regulatory drivers

A significant short squeeze saw Bitcoin surge past $81,000 and forced the liquidation of over $243 million in short positions, creating mechanical buying as short sellers covered their exposures, according to Interactivecrypto. Simultaneously, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $433.03 million in net inflows on September 18, 2026, largely driven by contributions from Fidelity's FBTC, which increased institutional demand, as reported by Theblock. Additionally, while the U.S. Senate did not advance the CLARITY Act on September 19, 2026, both the SEC and CFTC indicated ongoing progress in crypto regulation through agency actions, according to Cryptobriefing. Together, these factors reflect mixed drivers of institutional activity, forced market covering, and a patchwork path for future policy.

Seller exhaustion builds as intraday momentum clashes with strong resistance

BTC/USD is currently positioned below its MA-20 but remains above the MA-50 and MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $81,038 serves as immediate resistance, with the price trading near the session's low. MACD shows neutral momentum, while ADX signals selling pressure. Oversold readings appear across RSI (at 39.3), Stochastic RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power, suggesting seller exhaustion in the near term. Bull/Bear Power continues to indicate bearish dominance on intraday frames, and the Awesome Oscillator aligns with the prevailing downward pressure. Divergence between momentum and oscillators points to possible caution around further immediate declines.

Balanced move risk as Bitcoin faces range-bound price constraints

In the short term, BTC/USD is expected to remain confined within the $78,932 to $82,722 range as typical volatility plays out on both sides. Scenario analysis suggests an equal probability for upward or downward movement over the next 2 to 3 trading days. A sustained close above resistance at $81,038 would open the way for bullish momentum toward the upper range, while a break of near-term support could take the price toward the lower band.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees recent short liquidations and robust ETF inflows as confirmation of persistent institutional appetite for Bitcoin. He notes that while mixed regulatory cues keep policy risks alive, the steady progress by U.S. agencies helps anchor confidence from larger market players. Range-bound price action is likely in the near term, but underlying demand remains strong. "ETF flows and short squeezes highlight the growing maturity of the Bitcoin market — on balance, I expect a constructive path forward as institutions anchor support."

Earlier, analysts noted that the widespread adoption of Bitcoin as a payment method has shifted its role from being a unique business model to a standard feature within traditional retail venues. In the context of ongoing institutional flows, regulatory developments, and technical pressures, market participants should closely monitor the $81,038 resistance level as a potential trigger for renewed bullish momentum in the short term.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.