AVAX price breaks long-term downtrend: Can $11 hold as Treasury yields rise?
AVAX is heading into the end of September with an improving technical structure, but the next stage of the recovery is becoming increasingly dependent on conditions across global markets. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields still make it difficult to call the move a convincing shift into a sustained uptrend.
8.59
9.16
According to DeFiLlama, DEX trading volumes in the network have been at $1.02 billion in the last seven days, showing an increase of 7.6% compared to the previous week. Market capitalization of stablecoins was at $1.39 billion, with growth by 1.4%.
Derivative trading, on the other hand, appears quite weak. The seven-day trading volume for perpetuals stood at $145 million, representing a drop of 28.4% week over week. Spot DeFi activity therefore remains relatively resilient, while speculative trading has cooled noticeably.
A sustained move above $11 opens the path toward $13.50
Since the previous analysis, AVAX corrected into the $10.50–$9.75 range before recovering and breaking above a long-term descending trendline dating back to December 2024.
The move has yet to produce a convincing hold above that trendline, however. Following the breakout, the line is now acting as dynamic support. The key level remains $11. A drop and sustained move below it would increase the likelihood that the breakout proves false. In that case, the risk of another move toward $9.75 would rise significantly.
To confirm the bullish scenario, AVAX needs to establish itself firmly above $11 while keeping the broken trendline intact as support.
If that happens, the next target would be around $13.50, where the nearest major resistance zone is located.
That setup, however, now depends on more than AVAX’s own technical structure. Further upside would likely require easing pressure from global bond markets and a broader improvement in investor appetite for risk assets.
Rising U.S. Treasury yields limit AVAX breakout
The macro-economic environment, however, continues to pose the biggest challenge to further technical breakout.
Yield levels on the 30-year US Treasury note closed at around 5.59% following their climb to 5.61% intra-day on September 29 – that’s their highest point since June 2002.
With the yields close to multi-year highs, it is difficult to see how broader weakness in the crypto market will not keep putting pressure on AVAX’s gains despite resilience in Avalanche’s network parameters.
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