XRP price forecast: Downside risk builds unless $1.3663 support holds

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XRP falls 2.65% to $1.37 today

Highlights

A major security vulnerability in the XRP Ledger was patched, removing concerns about supply integrity and systemic risk.
Evernorth completed a Nasdaq debut following its merger, holding a large XRP treasury at a significantly reduced valuation, and Standard Chartered began institutional RLUSD custody with Ripple and LMAX Group.
XRP trades above long-term support but faces mixed short-term technical signals, with a projected range of $1.2838 to $1.4135 and a 67% probability of a downward move.

Protocol credibility rises as vulnerability patch eases systemic risk

A critical security vulnerability in the XRP Ledger was confirmed as patched two weeks prior to October 12, with the XRP Ledger Foundation attesting that no new XRP was created beyond the intended supply, according to Chaincatcher. This addressed concerns around supply integrity, effectively removing market uncertainty surrounding systemic risk and bolstering protocol credibility. Elsewhere on October 12, Evernorth completed its merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II and debuted on Nasdaq with a sizable XRP treasury valued notably lower than at original pricing, as noted by Yahoo Finance, while Standard Chartered initiated institutional custody for the RLUSD stablecoin on XRP Ledger and began working with Ripple and LMAX Group to expand RLUSD's collateral use, according to Crypto. The day’s news did not counteract prevailing market pressure on XRP.

Intraday buyer strength diverges from bearish daily momentum

Technical analysis highlights that XRP/USD is trading above the MA-20 but remains under the MA-50, with the MA-200 well below as a long-term base. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $1.3663 acts as immediate support. Among momentum indicators, MACD prints a strong sell, ADX also signals a sell bias, and RSI is neutral-to-sell, while Stochastic RSI is overbought and CCI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power underscores buyer control on an intraday basis, which diverges from the daily price retreat observed despite moderate volatility.

Downside risk prevails as price is contained within range

In the short term, XRP is projected to trade within a $1.2838 to $1.4135 range over the next two to three days. The probabilistic scenario assigns a 67% chance of further downside and a 33% up probability, indicating that near-term rebounds are less likely without a resistance breakout. Range-bound price action is the baseline expectation, with downside risk if immediate support is breached.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, believes XRP’s market remains under pressure despite protocol-level progress on security and institutional developments. He notes that technicals point to seller momentum, and news flow—even with critical risks mitigated—failed to trigger positive sentiment or sustained bids. The base scenario remains range-bound, with downside risk if support at $1.3663 breaks. "Until buyers reclaim key resistance, I remain defensive and see any upside as limited in the short term."

Earlier, analysts noted that broad risk-off flows across crypto, including significant losses in XRP were amplified by liquidations amid turbulence in both digital assets and semiconductor-linked contracts. The current technical setup for XRP signals a predominance of downside probabilities within the prevailing range, so traders should monitor the $1.3663 support closely for early signs of any momentum shift.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.