Avalanche struggles to stabilize after more than 10% slide as technicals remain weak: weekly analysis

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Avalanche falls 10.88% this week

Highlights

Avalanche trades at $9.2 after a 10.88% weekly drop, now below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
Momentum indicators are weak with oversold signals, as sellers remain in control and volatility hit 11.48% for the week.
The expected trading range is $8.64 to $10.45, with 64% probability of further declines unless $9.59 resistance is reclaimed.

Positive institutional moves offset mixed demand signals as accumulation grows

Institutional developments took center stage this week as Charles Schwab named Avalanche a leader in real-world asset tokenization and confirmed plans to add AVAX trading to its Schwab Crypto platform, according to CryptoBriefing. Schwab's research, cited by Pluang and TokenPost, also noted Avalanche’s $3.4 billion in total value locked as of September 2026 and questioned whether the rapid activity in real-world assets would translate to increased demand for AVAX. Meanwhile, TokenPost highlighted that AVAX futures trading on Binance reflected a net long bias among traders. Broader interest from the Avalanche Treasury, as reported by AllInCrypto, included ongoing AVAX accumulation for staking and expansion into areas like Bitcoin mining and AI compute.

Momentum deteriorates over the week as indicators flag deep oversold risks

The daily chart points to a developing trend, shaped by a sharp move lower without a sustained trend, as volatility reached 11.48% for the week. Momentum is weak—RSI is at 38.39 and approaching oversold, while CCI and Stoch RSI are firmly in the oversold zone—reflecting the recent flush lower. The MACD is negative, and Bull/Bear Power indicates sellers have the upper hand. Price is just above support at $9.06, with nearby resistance at $9.59 and the Ichimoku Kijun at $10.53 capping the upside.

Downside risk persists into next week with likelihood of prolonged range trade

Over the coming week, Avalanche is expected to trade between $8.64 and $10.45, with a 36% probability of an increase and a 64% chance of further declines. The base case is continued churn between $9.06 support and $9.59 resistance. A close above $9.59 could clear room to test $10.53. If Avalanche breaks below $9.06, downside momentum could accelerate toward $8.64.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees Avalanche (AVAX) under pressure after a 10% slide this week, hovering near $9.20. Sentiment remains cautious despite institutional news, with Charles Schwab spotlighting Avalanche for asset tokenization and net long futures positions on Binance. On the technical side, oversold daily indicators and a weak momentum picture keep sellers in control as price hovers just above $9.06 support. The tactical range is set at $8.64 to $10.45, with a 64% chance of further downside unless resistance at $9.59 is reclaimed. "This week, I'm watching for stabilization at support, but weak momentum means traders should be ready for another leg down if $9.06 fails."

Earlier, analysts noted that Avalanche faced persistent downside pressure despite ongoing institutional developments and incremental network growth. The latest price action and technical signals continue to reinforce this bearish outlook, with traders advised to monitor the $9.06 support for signs of stabilization or further weakness.

Source of Data: AVAX Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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