Litecoin faces downside bias with ADX confirming trend strength below $61.05: weekly analysis

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Litecoin slips 3.74% this week

Highlights

Litecoin trades at $59, falling $2.31 over the last week and moving below short-term moving averages.
Daily momentum indicators confirm a firm bearish trend with volatility at 10.02% and oversold conditions setting in.
The expected price range for next week is $55.99 to $70.8, with a 79% probability of further downside.

ETF inflows and anniversary bolster sentiment even as volumes lag

On October 19, 2026, Canary’s spot Litecoin ETF recorded an inflow of approximately $581,140 after a week of flat activity, according to Cryptoticker. Total assets in LTC ETFs have recently doubled to about $14 million, with inflows briefly peaking near $15 million before easing, as noted by TokenPost. These developments have helped lift short-term market sentiment but trading volumes remain below the 30-day average, according to DiarioBitcoin. Additionally, Litecoin marked its 15th anniversary in October 2026, highlighting its continued role as a major blockchain payment network, as reported by 24/7 Wall St.

Downside momentum persists as MACD, ADX and RSI reinforce bearish setup

The daily chart signals a sustained move lower with a firm trend, as marked by the MACD pointing to sell and an ADX reading of 28.28 confirming trend strength. Stochastic RSI is in the oversold zone at 13.67, suggesting selling pressure is stretched, but momentum remains tilted to the downside. Support is seen at $56.71, while resistance aligns with the 50-day moving average at $61.05 and the Ichimoku Kijun at $64.65. Volatility over the past week reached 10.02%, indicating active trading conditions.

Bearish bias prevails for next week unless resistance at $61.05 is breached

Next week, the expected range is $55.99 to $70.8, with a 21% probability of an increase and 79% chance of a decrease. The base case is for price to remain between $56.71 and $61.05, given prevailing bearish momentum. A decisive advance above $61.05 could open a test of the upper range near $64.65. If support at $56.71 fails, the downside may extend toward $55.99.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, believes Litecoin’s resilience amid heavy selling last week is noteworthy, especially as the asset marked its 15th anniversary and saw a jump in ETF inflows. He points out that while price action remains pressured near $59, recent spot ETF activity and a doubling in total assets to $14 million indicate growing institutional interest and positive sentiment. The daily chart shows oversold conditions, with Stochastic RSI at 13.67 and MACD still pointing to further downside, but trend strength (ADX 28.28) and increased volatility signal ongoing opportunities for tactical traders. He expects the $56.71 support to play a critical role in the days ahead, with a break above $61.05 potentially sparking a quick move toward $64.65. "I see Litecoin poised for a rebound if support holds — the combination of institutional flows and oversold signals makes this week one to watch closely for bullish setups."

Earlier, analysts noted that Litecoin faced persistent technical weakness despite signs of long-term resilience and gradual institutional adoption. With the current setup showing deeply oversold conditions and strong bearish momentum, traders should watch for a potential reversal signal if price reclaims the $61.05 level, as this could challenge the prevailing downtrend.

Source of Data: LTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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