Bitcoin holds steady as U.S. Treasury Department severs MEXC Global

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Bitcoin rises 0.7% to $76,091 today

Highlights

The U.S. Treasury Department cut MEXC Global off from the U.S. financial system after $16 billion in transactions linked to Iran, North Korea, and Russia.
This enforcement action increases regulatory pressure on the crypto sector and could restrict institutional liquidity and global trading flows.
BTC/USD trades below key moving averages in the short and medium term, with technical signals skewing bearish; the projected range is $73,270 to $79,434.

Liquidity risk grows as MEXC ban intensifies regulatory scrutiny

The U.S. Treasury Department's decision to sever MEXC Global from the U.S. financial system after the exchange was found to have processed $16 billion in transactions linked to Iran, North Korea, and Russia represents a significant tightening of regulatory oversight in the crypto sector, according to The Block. This enforcement action raises the perceived risk for institutional participants and could constrain authorized liquidity channels in global crypto markets. As a result, overall sentiment may become more cautious, with potential downstream effects on new capital inflows and transaction activity.

Bearish momentum confirmed as short-term resistance holds

On the H4 chart, BTC is trading below both the MA-20 and MA-50, while it remains above the MA-200 level on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun is positioned at $78,042 and serves as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators display a bearish bias, with both MACD and ADX pointing toward selling, while Bull/Bear Power remains negative, reinforcing seller dominance in intraday moves. Meanwhile, RSI and CCI are in neutral zones, Stochastic RSI has entered the oversold area, and the Awesome Oscillator does not confirm a clear trend, suggesting diverging short-term signals.

Downside risk elevated amid narrow trading corridor

Over the next several sessions, BTC is expected to fluctuate within a volatility band from $73,270 to $79,434. The likelihood of an upside breakout remains very low, whereas downside risk is elevated, making a further decline more probable. The primary scenario envisions consolidation within this corridor. However, a sustained move above the $78,042 resistance would open the way for a bullish reversal, while a drop below $73,270 could accelerate selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees a confluence of negative technical and regulatory factors limiting Bitcoin’s immediate upside. He notes that U.S. Treasury action against MEXC Global increases perceived institutional risk, while bearish momentum and resistance at $78,042 weigh on sentiment. Base case remains a consolidation between $73,270 and $79,434, with downside risk dominating the outlook. "Unless we see a clear reclaim above $78,042, I remain defensive and do not trust the upside here."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin was likely to remain in consolidation as regulatory developments and technical factors anchored the prevailing market scenario. The current analysis adds a deeper perspective on regulatory tightening and reinforces near-term downside risk, with the $73,270 support emerging as a critical level for traders to monitor.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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