Bitcoin price prediction: BTC weakness deepens ahead of $11.47B options expiry

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Sholanke Dele

29.08.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC weakness deepens ahead of $11.47B options expiry — Bitcoin struggles below key levels

Bitcoin’s price intraday recovery, which began earlier this week from a seven week low, has lost momentum and shifted into renewed weakness. The uptrend was initially guided by a bullish channel, but that structure broke down today, opening the door for deeper losses as technical and fundamental pressures converged.

• Bitcoin falls below $112,000 support as expiry event heightens downside pressure.

• BTC trading near $110,200 after channel breakdown confirms renewed bearish control.

• Options expiry worth $11.47B contrasts optimism with spot weakness near $110,000.

On Thursday, the rally attempt stalled at the weekly opening price of $113,500, which aligned closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This resistance acted as a ceiling, blocking Bitcoin from converting weekly losses into gains. Price action retreated from this level but found brief support at the lower boundary of the channel near $112,000. That cushion proved temporary as the Asian session today saw Bitcoin decisively break through the channel support.

Bitcoin price dynamic (April - August 2025). Source: Tradingview

As European markets opened, selling intensified. Bitcoin fell below the previous two-day low and reached $110,200. Volume analysis on the one-hour chart revealed a noticeable increase during this decline, a clear confirmation of selling pressure. Another technical blow came from the drop beneath the 100-day exponential moving average at $110,900. Together, these developments point to a market that is not only technically weaker but also struggling to find near-term stability.

Bitcoin Max Pain at $115,000 contrasts sharply price weakness

The timing of this breakdown intersects with a significant options expiry event. On Friday, Bitcoin options worth $11.47 billion in notional value are set to expire, covering a total open interest of 102,598 contracts. The Put to Call ratio stands at 0.78, showing that purchase contracts outnumber sales contracts. This points to a market leaning slightly toward optimism despite the latest technical breakdown. However, the Max Pain level for these contracts is concentrated at $115,000. This means the greatest financial loss for option holders occurs if Bitcoin settles near that level, which is currently far above spot prices.

The contrast between technical weakness and option market structure creates an important tension. Spot price trading at $110,200, far below the Max Pain level, highlights that sellers have the upper hand in the immediate term. Bulls would need to reclaim and sustain price action above $112,000 to revive hopes of aligning closer to the $115,000 Max Pain zone. Until then, the expiry could add pressure rather than relief, as the market leans toward lower levels while option positions cluster at higher strikes.

Overall, Bitcoin’s breakdown below key support levels combined with the scale of today’s expiry tilts short-term risks to the downside, even though option market ratios suggest underlying optimism. The coming sessions will show whether buyers can defend $110,000 or if further weakness drags the price deeper below this week’s range.

Bitcoin tested $110,850 support after ETF outflows kept downside risks alive. BTC faded below $113,500 weekly open as weak sentiment pressured recovery.

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