Bitcoin price prediction: BTC stalls below $118k amid bearish signal from options expiry

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Sholanke Dele

19.09.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC stalls below $118k amid bearish signal from options expiry — Bitcoin options expiry raises pressure toward $114,000

Bitcoin price bullish momentum in September has started to show signs of fatigue after reaching a five-week high at $118,000 on Thursday.

That advance met resistance from a bearish order block that is protecting the $120,000 level, and since then the price has been on a mild retreat. By Friday, September 19, Bitcoin was trading near $116,800, down almost 1% from the previous session’s peak. Price action has been largely sideways since the Asian session, consolidating in European hours around the same level.

- Bitcoin consolidates near $116,800 as expiry pressures limit upside momentum.

- $116,000 Fibonacci retracement becomes crucial support in current trading zone.

- Options expiry max pain at $114,000 threatens short-term downside pull.

Despite the pullback, the broader uptrend is still intact. However, this week’s rally has struggled to hold momentum, as deeper retracements have followed each higher high. That pattern indicates hesitancy among buyers as Bitcoin approaches key resistance zones. The stalling effect is amplified by the presence of large options expiries due today, which often influence short term direction.

Bitcoin price dynamic (Aug - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

Data from Deribit highlights the scale of the options event, with more than $4.3 billion in crypto contracts set to expire. Of that, Bitcoin accounts for $3.5 billion in notional value and 30,208 contracts. The put-to-call ratio stands at 1.23, showing that puts outnumber calls and reflecting a tilt toward bearish sentiment. The maximum pain point for today’s expiry is $114,000, a level that represents the price at which the greatest number of contracts expire worthless. This is closely watched because it often exerts gravitational pressure on prices around expiry dates.

Bitcoin options expiry worth $3.5 billion drives cautious sentiment today

The positioning suggests that traders are braced for downside pressure, although spot price action has so far held above the Fibonacci 50% retracement level at $116,000. This zone is now a key battleground. A clear break below $116,000 could confirm a retracement of September’s rally, potentially bringing Bitcoin closer to the maximum pain level around $114,000.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin holds above this threshold and manages to absorb expiry-related volatility, the bullish structure could reassert itself. In that case, clearing the order block near $118,000 would be decisive for a fresh attempt at $120,000.

In summary, Bitcoin’s short-term path hinges on whether expiry pressures pull the market lower or whether buyers defend the $116,000 area. The outcome will determine if September’s rally consolidates further or builds the strength to challenge new highs.

Powell’s remarks limited risk assets, but Bitcoin maintains resilient upward momentum. Bitcoin rebounded from $114,700, sustaining a rally toward $118,000 resistance zone.

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