Optimism consolidates near $0.70, after token unlock triggers 11.8% drop

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Optimism Rises 0.11% Today

Highlights

Optimism (OP) trades at $0.7035, down below MA-20 ($0.7626), MA-50 ($0.7463), and MA-200 ($0.7127), indicating persistent selling pressure.
The September 21, 2025 unlock of 116 million OP tokens increased supply, triggering an 11.82% drop on September 24 and fueling further downside concerns.
OP is projected to trade between $0.6572 and $0.6933 over the next five days, with probability of further decline at over 80% barring an MA-50 ($0.7463) breakout.

Supply-driven drop deepens losses as token unlock overshadows sentiment

A major unlock event on September 21, 2025, saw 116 million OP tokens released, significantly increasing circulating supply and fueling concerns about additional downward price momentum. This supply-driven pressure contributed to a sharp 11.82% decline in OP on September 24, outpacing broader crypto market losses. While recent advances in Layer-3 technology and efficiency initiatives support long-term sentiment, immediate trading remains weighed down by lingering supply concerns from the unlock.

Divergent signals as momentum indicators flag weak trend and oversold risk

Technically, OP’s price persists beneath all major moving averages, with dynamic resistance at the MA-50 ($0.7463) and support near the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.7547. Momentum indicators are mixed: while the daily MACD issues a strong buy signal, the ADX remains neutral, reflecting weak trend strength. Oscillators such as RSI (38.56) and CCI (-149.7) highlight oversold conditions, with the Stochastic RSI also suggesting downside exhaustion, yet the BBP confirms dominant sellers, and the Awesome Oscillator fails to confirm an uptrend. Despite OP closing near today’s session high, indicator divergences highlight ongoing caution.

Downside bias persists as low breakout prospects weigh on outlook

Over the next five trading days, OP is expected to range between $0.6572 and $0.6933, with an average price around $0.6753. The likelihood of price appreciation is low — less than 20% — making a further decline more probable. The baseline outlook is for OP to continue moving sideways near recent lows, with any bullish reversal requiring a breakout above the MA-50 ($0.7463). A sustained move below $0.6572 would confirm ongoing downside momentum in the medium term.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes that the recent token unlock and resulting supply shock have weighed heavily on OP’s short-term performance, but macro and fundamental advances in Layer-3 infrastructure help underpin longer-term sentiment. He sees the current price action as a sideways accumulation phase, buffered by oversold momentum signals and persistent, but gradually diminishing, sell pressure. While the likelihood of immediate price appreciation remains limited, Karapetjanc maintains a constructive outlook, emphasizing that strong fundamentals and ongoing ecosystem innovation could eventually catalyze a sustainable rebound. "Should OP reclaim the $0.7463 level, I would expect sentiment to meaningfully shift and brighter upside prospects to emerge for patient investors."

Previously it was noted that momentum signals are mixed, with the MACD indicating strong buying potential but ADX reflecting only moderate trend strength. The article also highlighted persistent bearish pressure, trading below all key moving averages and uncertain technical outlook based on daily oscillators.

Source of Data: OP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.