Bitcoin price prediction: BTC surge in early October reaffirms seasonal strength

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Sholanke Dele

02.10.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC surge in early October reaffirms seasonal strength — Bitcoin rally builds in Uptober

Bitcoin price carried strong momentum into October, recording a sharp breakout at the start of the month.

On October 1, the same day the US government entered its first shutdown since 2018, Bitcoin surged 4.14% from an opening level at $114,000 to break above the September peak at $118,000. That single-day move marked the largest daily percentage gain in over 90 days and was supported by the heaviest daily traded volume in more than 30 days.

- Bitcoin price surges past $118,000 on highest daily volume in 30 days

- BTC RSI climbs to 64, confirming bullish momentum without breaching overbought threshold

- EMAs align bullishly as Bitcoin inches closer to key $120,000 resistance

The technical implications of that rally were significant. On the daily chart, the 20-day EMA crossed above the 50-day EMA at the $114,000 psychological mark, a signal that momentum has shifted in favor of buyers. On the four-hour timeframe, the bullish alignment deepened further. The 20 EMA already trades above both the 50 and 100 EMAs, and on October 1, the 50 EMA also moved above the 100 EMA. That secondary crossover confirmed broad-based strength and created a foundation that market participants often interpret as a platform for continued upside.

Bitcoin price dynamic (April - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

Momentum indicators added weight to the constructive picture. The daily RSI climbed to 64, its highest reading since mid-August, pointing firmly into bullish territory without breaching the overbought threshold. This suggests scope for further gains before the rally risks overheating. Historical tendencies also add an interesting backdrop. October has often been a seasonally favorable month for Bitcoin, a trend known among traders as “Uptober.” September closed with a 4% advance, and the early days of October are already building on that base.

Bitcoin faces $120,000 resistance after rally takes price within 5% of record

By Thursday, October 2, Bitcoin extended its rally during Asian trading to a high at $119,500 before easing slightly in the European session back toward $118,700. That pullback leaves the market only 1% shy of the $120,000 resistance level and roughly 5% away from the record high at $124,500, last seen in August.

The current setup places Bitcoin at a pivotal juncture. A decisive break above $120,000 would remove a major psychological hurdle and open a direct path toward retesting the all-time peak. As long as EMAs maintain their bullish alignment and RSI holds below overbought, buyers may continue to dominate. Failure to clear resistance at $120,000 could produce short-term consolidation, yet the broader structure suggests that the path of least resistance points higher into the early stages of October.

Exchange outflows strengthen BTC accumulation despite mid-September sharp correction.

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