Bearish technicals — THORChain gains 7.88% as oversold signals clash with rally

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THORChain rises 7.88% to $0.931 today

Highlights

THORChain (RUNE) gained 7.88% to $0.931 but remains below its MA-20 ($1.1239), MA-50 ($1.199), and MA-200 ($1.3813), confirming ongoing bearish sentiment.
No direct news or regulatory developments on October 12 left RUNE trading driven by technical forces and reduced investor participation following the drop on October 10.
Technical indicators show RUNE is oversold with RSI at 23.13 and faces resistance at $0.97, with a base case for sideways price action below $1.00 and less than a 20% probability of further gains.

Cautious sentiment persists as technical forces outweigh lack of news

No direct company news or market-moving events related to RUNE emerged on October 12. With no notable corporate actions or regulatory developments, trading has been driven mainly by technical market forces and reduced investor participation. The continued decline in price and activity is a result of bearish momentum and lingering caution among traders following a sharp price drop on October 10.

Resistance hurdles intensify as mixed momentum fuels intraday volatility

From a technical analysis viewpoint, RUNE is facing resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun ($0.97) and remains bearish short-, medium-, and long-term. Daily momentum is mixed — the ADX (D1) at 36.35 has a buy bias, while the MACD stays negative, signaling divergence. Several indicators, including the RSI (23.13), Stoch RSI, and CCI, point to an oversold market, while BBP confirms ongoing seller dominance. Despite price trading near today's high ($0.935) and a lack of price gap between the previous close and open, intraday volatility is elevated and strength is building into session highs, yet oversold oscillators contrast with the upside move.

Downside risk elevated as base case favors sideways consolidation

Looking ahead, RUNE is expected to trade between $1.0120 and $1.0300 over the next five days. The probability of further gains is low — less than 20% — and a move lower is more likely. Most signs point to sideways action below $1.00 in the base case, with a close above $0.97 targeting $1.00, while a drop below $0.93 could increase pressure and send the price to new lows.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes that despite THORChain’s (RUNE) continued trading below key moving averages and persistent bearish technical patterns, the oversold signals could allow for a technical rebound if sentiment shifts. While macro and sentiment factors remain subdued due to the lack of notable news or catalysts, he sees moderate potential for upward movement should RUNE maintain support above $0.93 and reclaim $0.97. However, the upcoming sessions are likely to remain range-bound, with a bias to the downside unless new momentum emerges. "Momentum is building off recent lows, so if we see a sustained push above $0.97, the bulls may find renewed confidence for a move toward the $1.00 mark."

Last time we reported that muted sentiment persists as absence of news dampened activity around RUNE. Technical indicators then confirmed persistent downward pressure and limited chances of a rebound.

Source of Data: RUNE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.