XRP price prediction: Continued consolidation or downside risk as ETF hopes fade?

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XRP rises 0.20% today at $2.35

Highlights

XRP trades at $2.3486, remaining below the $2.6737 MA-20, $2.8203 MA-50, and $2.5877 MA-200, signaling continued seller pressure.
Ripple Labs launched a $1 billion XRP-focused treasury to tighten supply and increase price stability, while XRP spot ETF approvals are delayed by the U.S. government shutdown.
XRP is expected to stay between $2.3141 and $2.4493 over the next five days, with less than a 20% probability of an upward move and prevailing neutral-to-bearish sentiment.

Market flows cautious amid weak sentiment and technical barriers

Ripple Labs has initiated a $1 billion treasury capital raise to establish an XRP-focused digital asset treasury, aiming to tighten supply and support greater price stability. The move seeks to enhance institutional demand for Ripple’s platforms. In addition, the launch of XRP spot ETFs has been delayed due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, limiting regulatory approvals for crypto-linked products.

Mixed momentum shapes bias as support and resistance levels converge

Momentum on the daily chart is mixed. ADX is strong and signals buyers are active, but the MACD remains negative. Both daily RSI and CCI indicate oversold conditions, with Stoch RSI near the lower band. BBP and the Awesome Oscillator both show no clear dominance, reflecting neutral-to-bearish intraday sentiment. The closest dynamic support is the Ichimoku Kijun at $2.1771, while the MA-50 near $2.8203 acts as resistance.

Limited upside likely as bearish signals outweigh bullish cues

For the next 5 trading days, the expected range is $2.3141 to $2.4493. The probability of an upward move is very low (less than 20%), making a decline more likely, as only 1 out of 4 weekly signals is bullish. The baseline scenario is for XRP to remain sideways within the $2.31 – $2.45 range. In a bullish scenario, the price would need to clear resistance above $2.82, while a bearish scenario could see a break below $2.31, opening room for further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees Ripple’s ambitious $1 billion treasury raise and focus on institutional adoption as major positives, although the delay of XRP ETFs and ongoing macro uncertainty continue to weigh on broader sentiment. He believes the technical setup remains challenging in the short term, with XRP trading under all major moving averages and only weak signals of buyer momentum. Nevertheless, Karapetjanc remains optimistic given Ripple’s proactive steps to support price stability and drive demand, suggesting the medium-term outlook could improve if regulatory headwinds ease. "With Ripple strengthening its fundamentals and building institutional interest, I believe XRP could surprise on the upside once market conditions normalize."

Previously, it was noted that macro tailwinds and whale accumulation played a key role in fueling XRP’s recent gains. The article highlighted that accommodative policy cues tend to drive capital back into speculative markets, including crypto.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.