Major token unlocks — Ethena gains 7.72%

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Ethena rises 7.72% to $0.3392 today

Highlights

Ethena (ENA) trades at $0.3392, remaining below the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, signaling persistent multi-timeframe selling pressure.
Over $54 million in ENA tokens were unlocked today, with continued monthly unlocks scheduled through April 2027, increasing circulating supply and potential volatility.
Oscillators indicate ENA is oversold near $0.2999 support, but sustained bearish momentum and resistance at $0.3515 suggest a higher likelihood of further downside.

Ongoing token unlocks increase circulating supply, impacting short-term sentiment

Over $54 million worth of ENA tokens were unlocked earlier today as part of Ethena’s ongoing token release schedule. The company plans to continue unlocking additional tokens over the coming months, with the release process scheduled to extend through April 2027. These token unlocks are significant for ENA’s tokenomics and could influence the circulating supply and related market activity.

Bullish rebound contrasts with mixed momentum and resistance at Kijun level

The nearest dynamic resistance is at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $0.3515, with intermediate support below the daily low at $0.2999. Momentum signals present a mixed picture: MACD and ADX on D1 indicate sustained bearish momentum, while oversold readings from RSI (30), Stoch RSI (0), and CCI (–186) highlight substantial short-term exhaustion among sellers. The negative BBP shows sellers still dominate intraday flows, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms the downward trend. ENA is near the high end of today's $0.2999 – $0.3429 range, with volatility elevated and bulls making a strong push. This rebound contrasts with persistent underlying bearish momentum, producing a clear divergence between oversold oscillators and trend indicators.

Further downside likely unless resistance is reclaimed amid low rebound odds

The expected price range for the next five trading days is $0.0672 to $0.2902, with a very low probability (less than 20%) of a sustained price increase and a higher likelihood of further downside. The baseline scenario sees the price consolidating sideways within these bounds. For a rebound, ENA would need to decisively clear resistance at $0.3515. If bearish pressure prevails and support at $0.2999 is broken, prices could weaken further toward the lower end of the weekly range.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Ethena’s current trading environment as one marked by significant token unlocks and notable volatility, with bears still holding the upper hand according to most technical trend indicators. However, he notes that strong oversold signals and the proximity to support suggest sellers may soon exhaust their momentum, particularly if macro sentiment stabilizes. Karapetjanc believes the ongoing token unlocks are already partially reflected in price, and the risk of further downside, while real, coexists with the potential for a sentiment-driven rebound. "If bulls can push ENA above the $0.3515 resistance, the groundwork will be set for a constructive medium-term recovery despite persistent caution in the broader market."

Last time, we reported that sellers dominated intraday action alongside a divergence between exhaustion and persistent selling pressure. Previously it was noted that momentum readings for ENA were mixed, reflecting a potential tug-of-war between short-term exhaustion and ongoing downside risk.

Source of Data: ENA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.