Bitcoin price prediction: BTC consolidates near $105,000 as traders await U.S. inflation data and Fed signals

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Highlights

- Investors are watching U.S. inflation and jobs data for clues on the Fed’s next policy steps.

- Stronger yields and tighter liquidity keep Bitcoin’s upside contained in the near term.

- Market bias leans neutral to modestly bearish unless upcoming macro data turns dovish.

Bitcoin steadies as markets weigh interest-rate and inflation outlook

Bitcoin remains range-bound as investors gauge the direction of U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s recent remarks about potential rate adjustments have set the tone for risk markets, with traders positioning around expectations of future easing. A softer policy stance briefly lifted Bitcoin last week, but the Fed’s continued caution has since moderated sentiment.Inflation and growth indicators remain critical short-term drivers. Weak jobs data or slowing GDP could reinforce expectations of policy easing, historically supportive for Bitcoin. Conversely, a stronger inflation print or higher yields would likely pressure risk assets. Recent declines in crypto exchange reserves indicate constrained supply, but overall market liquidity remains tight, a combination that tempers large directional moves.

Experts interpret Bitcoin’s macro behavior

Anton Kharitonov, senior analyst at Traders Union, notes that “Bitcoin is moving in rhythm with macro liquidity. The higher-for-longer rate view keeps the market cautious, and rallies fade faster when Treasury yields climb.”

Viktoras Karapetyants, head of research, says that “Bitcoin is now deeply tied to global macro cycles. Its correlation with equities and bonds means it reacts quickly to policy headlines rather than moving independently.”

Jainam Mehta, strategist at Traders Union, adds that “the current structure looks more like patient accumulation. If inflation data softens, Bitcoin could rebound toward $108,500, but until then, traders are defensive.”

Technical outlook shows a range-bound setup

Bitcoin has traded between $104,766 and $105,225 in the last session, consolidating just above immediate support zones. The 20-day EMA stands at $105,592, the 50-day EMA at $104,988, the 100-day EMA at $104,337, and the 200-day EMA near $104,755, collectively forming a dense support cluster. The RSI is at 46.60, indicating weakening momentum after a brief overbought phase earlier this week. A sustained break below $104,700 could expose $103,800, while resistance remains near $106,000 and $107,200. Overall, the structure favors range-bound trading until new macro data provides direction.

Background and previous coverage

Earlier this week, Bitcoin’s muted reaction to Fed commentary highlighted how monetary policy remains the dominant force behind its near-term trajectory. Read our previous analysis on Bitcoin’s macro correlation to understand how liquidity cycles continue to shape its price action.

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