Bitcoin price forecast: BTC steadies near $104,800 as traders await U.S. CPI and Treasury yield cues

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Highlights

- Bitcoin dipped as traders reduced risk ahead of the U.S. CPI and PPI releases this week.

- Tight financial conditions and firm yields weigh on speculative assets.

- The short-term bias remains neutral to modestly bearish pending inflation results.

Bitcoin weakens as markets tighten ahead of inflation reports

Bitcoin came under pressure on Monday as broader financial conditions stayed firm and traders moved to the sidelines before critical U.S. macro data. The ten-year Treasury yield continues to hover near multi-week highs, keeping liquidity tight and risk sentiment fragile. A subdued dollar has helped prevent a deeper selloff, but investors are clearly waiting for inflation data before rebuilding positions.

ETF inflows have turned positive again after several days of outflows, signaling that structural demand for Bitcoin remains intact despite near-term caution. However, these flows have been insufficient to offset the macro drag from higher yields and uncertain growth prospects. Across global markets, mixed signals from commodities, bonds, and equities have elevated cross-asset correlations, meaning Bitcoin continues to mirror risk sentiment rather than acting as an independent hedge.

Experts interpret Bitcoin’s macro performance

Anton Kharitonov, senior analyst at Traders Union, comments that “the macro setup is challenging. Higher yields and tight liquidity conditions make it hard for Bitcoin to attract new speculative demand until the CPI print gives clarity.”

Viktoras Karapetyants, head of research, notes that “Bitcoin’s link to macro sentiment is now very strong. Traders are watching yields and the dollar minute by minute. If CPI surprises on the upside, we could easily see another leg down.”

Jainam Mehta, strategist at Traders Union, adds that “the ETF inflows are a soft cushion for now, but they cannot fully counterbalance macro headwinds. A softer inflation surprise would be a strong trigger for recovery.”

Technical outlook shows near-term weakness

Bitcoin has traded between $104,150 and $105,010 over the past session, maintaining stability above key support. The 20-day EMA is at $103,790, the 50-day EMA at $104,109, the 100-day EMA at $104,058, and the 200-day EMA at $104,506, all clustered near the current level, indicating consolidation. The RSI stands at 62.28, showing improving momentum after a recent dip into oversold territory. A break above $105,000 could open a path toward $106,200, while failure to hold above $104,000 might expose $103,200.

Background and previous coverage

Earlier this week, Bitcoin’s resilience during yield spikes hinted at steady long-term interest despite tighter policy expectations. Read our previous analysis on Bitcoin’s macro correlation to understand how inflation trends continue to shape investor behavior.

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