Weekly forecast: Ethereum risks losing $3000 as ETF outflows continue rising
Ethereum lost more than 9% over the week and on Sunday traded close to the $3,000 level, though it managed to rebound above $3,100. Analysts claim that nearly all investors who wanted to lock in profits accumulated in recent months have already done so, yet the bottom has still not formed, and ETH may fall further before a reversal begins.
According to AMBCrypto, Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) dropped to 0.23 — its lowest value since July 1. The last time NUPL fell even lower was on June 22, reaching 0.17. That dip happened right before Ethereum rallied by 106.3%, which helped NUPL exit a capitulation phase and shift into belief and denial.
For Ethereum, the guiding star now is the Fusaka upgrade scheduled for early December. Some analysts believe its market impact could even surpass that of Pectra, which helped ETH gain more than 58% shortly after its release.
Surviving until the upgrade with minimal losses
However, ETH is currently trading within a downward channel, and there is a serious risk of losing the psychological $3,000 level if broader crypto-market conditions don’t improve.
For now, there are few reasons for optimism. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates again in December, and markets are pricing this in. Last week, Ethereum ETFs recorded $465 million in outflows — a trend that will likely continue into the new week.
“Ethereum is entering a correction phase and may test lower support levels in the near future. If demand does not pick up, a decline toward the $2,500–$3,000 zone is likely,” says analyst Anton Kharitonov.
There is, however, evidence that the recent bounce is linked to the buildup of speculative liquidity, and futures traders are positioning for ETH upside.Supporting this view, ETH open interest (OI) increased by $2 billion in less than 72 hours, while BTC gained only $280 million. That makes Bitcoin’s OI growth seven times slower, highlighting a sharp leverage shift toward Ethereum. We will be able to verify this next week.
ETH 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
For now, the most probable scenario is that ETH trades sideways with slight downside movement in the $2,900–$3,400 range as the market digests ETF flows and macroeconomic news, while on-chain whales continue steady accumulation.
Positive news and ETF inflow stabilization could push ETH above $3,450, though this remains unlikely.
A negative scenario is more probable: continued ETF outflows, weakening BTC, or clustered liquidations could push ETH below $2,900, opening support levels at $2,400–$2,600.
As we wrote, Ethereum price prediction: Heavy exchange outflows threaten breakdown as bulls fail to clear trendline
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