Ethereum trades around $3,035, after massive market liquidations and mixed technicals

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Ethereum rises 0.58% today on rebound

Highlights

Ethereum experienced a major liquidation event on October 11, wiping out over 1.6 million traders and $3.8 billion in ETH positions, while futures open interest dropped from $70 billion in August to $37 billion.
ETF outflows reached $728 million last week, signaling reduced exposure by certain investors despite increased ETH holdings from institutional players such as BitMine and SharpLink.
Upcoming Fusaka upgrade and potential SEC approval of Ethereum staking ETFs constitute key catalysts for the ecosystem amid ongoing volatility.

Mass liquidations and ETF outflows dampen sentiment as institutional interest grows

Ethereum saw a significant liquidation event on October 11, eliminating over 1.6 million traders and $3.8 billion in ETH positions from the market, alongside futures open interest declining from $70 billion in August to $37 billion. ETF outflows totaled $728 million last week, indicating a reduction in certain investor exposures. Despite this, institutional actors such as BitMine and SharpLink increased their ETH holdings, and the anticipated Fusaka upgrade and SEC approval of Ethereum staking ETFs remain key watchpoints for the ecosystem.

Oversold technicals signal bounce potential as bearish momentum prevails

Momentum signals are mixed: MACD and ADX D1 indicate underlying bearish momentum, but oscillators such as RSI (35.52), Stoch RSI ("Strong Buy"), and CCI ("Oversold") suggest oversold conditions may support at least a short-term bounce. Bull/Bear Power remains negative and classified as "Oversold," highlighting persistent dominance by sellers; the Awesome Oscillator also reinforces the bearish trend. ETH gained 0.58% today with a mild rise of $17.37, opening with no material gap, and the current price sits mid-range between today's low ($3,010.7) and high ($3,062.08), indicating moderate volatility and a lack of clear intraday direction. The slight upward move is not matched by momentum indicators, underlining the divergence between daily performance and prevailing trend signals.

Low probability of rally as range-bound consolidation expected

Looking ahead, the expected price range for the next five trading days is $2,950 to $3,090, keeping within 3–4% of the current level per recent weekly volatility. Given that only 1 out of 4 key weekly momentum and trend signals (MA-50-w1) suggest a bullish setup, there is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a sustained price increase, while a further decline is more likely. Baseline scenario calls for ETH consolidating between $2,950 and $3,090. A bullish scenario would require a decisive break above $3,090, opening room for a move toward $3,150, while a bearish scenario would play out if ETH slips below $2,950, risking deeper short-term losses.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees persistent bearish momentum for Ethereum despite a small daily gain and mixed short-term signals. He notes that major indicators remain weak and ETF outflows, along with heavy liquidations, reinforce the defensive outlook. Institutional accumulation and upcoming regulatory decisions are a minor positive, but do not yet shift the overall tone. "Until ETH reclaims at least $3,090 with real momentum, the risk of further downside remains my base case."

Previously it was noted that British hacker Joseph James O’Connor was ordered to return significant cryptocurrency holdings including Ethereum, Bitcoin, and BUSD due to a civil recovery order. Last time we reported that Ethereum slides 5.84%, trading well below its MA-20 and remaining under heavy selling pressure.

Source of Data: ETH Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.