Grayscale: Bitcoin may break from its historic four-year halving cycle
Grayscale Research said Monday that Bitcoin may break from the well-known four-year cycle pattern tied to its halving events.
Analysts argued that while the outlook carries uncertainty, BTC could still set new highs next year despite recent volatility, reports Cryptopolitan.
Bitcoin has dropped 32% from its peak since early October, briefly touching $84,000 before rebounding to about $86,900 on Tuesday morning. Grayscale noted that long-term holders tend to profit over time but must tolerate steep drawdowns along the way. Declines of 25% or more are not uncommon during bull markets, the firm said, and do not necessarily signal the start of a prolonged downturn. This perspective directly challenges the idea that BTC must follow a predictable boom-and-bust rhythm every four years.
Why the current market deviates from past cycles
Grayscale outlined several factors showing why Bitcoin may avoid repeating its historical pattern. Unlike previous bull runs, this cycle has not seen the type of dramatic price blow-off that often precedes major reversals. The investor base has also shifted, with institutions buying through ETFs and corporate treasuries rather than retail traders driving spot exchange activity.
Economic conditions appear more favorable as well, with expected rate cuts and bipartisan progress on U.S. crypto regulation creating a supportive backdrop. These elements combined suggest Bitcoin may behave more like a maturing macro asset than a speculative instrument tied to halving dates. According to Grayscale, this shift could help BTC break the historical loop and establish new highs in 2025.
Market analysts share a broadly bullish outlook
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee echoed the optimism, projecting a strong December for equities and a possible S&P 500 rally toward 7,300 by year-end. He highlighted the end of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening as a major catalyst, comparing today’s setup to 2019 when markets surged after QT stopped. Lee believes the volatility seen in November helped reset investor positioning, creating room for a rebound.
Although crypto markets suffered sharp declines in October, he argued that neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum has reached its cycle peak. With the bond market pricing in a dovish Fed stance, Lee expects improving liquidity conditions to lift both stocks and digital assets. Together, these signals point to a potential recovery phase rather than a continuation of recent weakness.
Recently we wrote that Bitcoin is trading near $86,923, posting a modest 1% gain over the past 24 hours while remaining down on the weekly chart.
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