USD/UZS technical analysis: Consolidation near UZS11,768 support

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US Dollar vs Uzbekistan Som drops 0.58%

Highlights

The US dollar lost ground against major currencies as softer US economic data reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Lower demand for US dollar assets has led to weak price action in the US Dollar vs Uzbekistan Som pair.
USD/UZS trades below key moving averages with negative momentum indicators, and is expected to remain between UZS11,768 to UZS11,886 with a high probability of further decline.

Fed rate outlook shifts as weak US data dims dollar demand

According to Economictimes Indiatimes, the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies as traders became less certain about further Federal Reserve rate hikes in light of softer U.S. economic data, including declines in retail sales and job losses. This shift in rate expectations lowers the appeal of U.S. dollar assets, reducing demand for the US Dollar vs Uzbekistan Som and contributing to the current flat price action. The news reflects a more cautious market stance toward U.S. monetary policy following weaker economic indicators.

Sustained bearish bias as oversold signals clash with weak support

USD/UZS is trading beneath the MA-20 at UZS11,882 and MA-50 at UZS11,898 on the H1 chart, with the long-term MA-200 on the daily chart situated at UZS12,089. The immediate resistance is set by the Ichimoku Kijun at UZS11,868, while first support is identified at UZS11,768. Momentum signals remain negative, with both MACD and ADX pointing to a prevailing sell-side bias. RSI reads at 32.56, aligning with sell territory, while both Stoch RSI and CCI are in oversold zones, suggesting some seller exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power is currently overbought, indicating a possibility of a minor counter-move from buyers, though the Awesome Oscillator continues to register bearish momentum.

Downside risk dominates while breakout odds stay limited

In the short term, USD/UZS is anticipated to trade between UZS11,768 and UZS11,886, forming a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upward breakout is low, with downward continuation risk remaining elevated as technical and macro factors converge. A sustained move above immediate resistance at UZS11,868 could trigger corrective gains, while a decisive drop below UZS11,768 support would extend the prevailing downtrend.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees lingering weakness in USD/UZS as both technicals and macroeconomic context weigh on the pair. He notes that the price remains below key moving averages and sentiment is subdued after traders scaled back Fed hike expectations. Downside risks dominate unless resistance at UZS11,868 is broken. "Until a clear reversal signal emerges, I remain defensive and see more downside in USD/UZS as the base case."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/UZS was experiencing sustained downside momentum with technical signals pointing to further bearish pressure. The current analysis reinforces this prevailing weakness, highlighting elevated downside risks and underscoring the importance of monitoring price action near the UZS11,768 support for potential breaks lower.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.