Australian Dollar vs Vietnamese Dong slips after sellers dominate short-term trading despite longer-term bullish structure

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Australian dollar slides 0.64% today

Highlights

AUD/VND trades below its 20-day moving average but holds above longer-term supports, indicating short-term selling with broader trend still positive.
Technical indicators are mixed, with MACD showing strong buying, RSI moderately bullish, and Stochastic RSI oversold, suggesting choppy, sideways action.
Forecast range for the next 5 trading days is ₫18,446 to ₫18,669, with 68% probability for an upward move and resistance at ₫18,579.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views the recent AUD/VND movement as fragile. He notes that the pair is capped below its 20-day moving average while support at ₫18,537 is yet to be convincingly breached. Kharitonov points out that mixed technical indicators and lack of news drivers leave price action uncertain. He stresses the overbought condition signals risk of a sharp reversal if support fails. "Traders should remain cautious as buyer enthusiasm can quickly fade if the medium-term floor gives way."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights the bullish structure underpinning AUD/VND. He notes that the pair holds above both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, reflecting strong medium- and long-term momentum. Karapetjanc emphasizes that buyers maintain dominance with positive Bull/Bear Power and a resilient RSI. He believes constructive setups persist even amid short-term volatility. "As long as key support at ₫18,537 holds, I expect further upside and fresh opportunities for trend followers."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, remains wary about AUD/VND’s near-term prospects. He observes that technicals reveal choppy action and suggest the pair may lack clear direction. Dele also notes that the absence of relevant news flow leaves sentiment exposed to sudden swings. "Without strong macro or sentiment support, a break below ₫18,537 could quickly accelerate downside moves."

Short-term weakness offset by bullish longer-term technical configuration

AUD/VND is trading below the 20-day moving average (₫18,701), but remains above both the 50-day (₫18,537) and 200-day (₫18,523) moving averages. This configuration signals short-term pressure from sellers, with medium- and long-term support evident in the bullish alignment between the 50-day and 200-day averages. Immediate resistance stands at the Ichimoku Kijun (₫18,579), and nearby support is marked at the 50-day moving average (₫18,537). Momentum signals are mixed: the MACD suggests strong buying, the ADX is neutral, and the RSI is moderately bullish at 54. Stochastic RSI is in oversold territory, the CCI is neutral, and Bull/Bear Power remains positive at ₫67.57, pointing to intraday buyer dominance but also an overbought condition. The pair is trading near its session low, following intraday volatility of 0.53%. Diverging intraday technicals suggest a potential for sideways or choppy trading in the near term.

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/VND was under sustained bearish momentum and faced downside risks as technical indicators highlighted persistent seller dominance. The current environment adds nuance, with mixed intraday signals suggesting that traders should monitor the 50-day moving average as a pivotal level for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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