US dollar to South Korean won rate prediction: Consolidation near ₩1,365 resistance

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US Dollar vs Korean Won gains 0.79% today

Highlights

Major Korean semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix recently converted large amounts of US dollars to won, increasing dollar supply and driving demand for won.
These conversions are tied to ongoing liquidity needs for corporate operations at these major tech firms.
USD/KRW shows robust short-term upward momentum and overbought technical signals, with a forecasted range of ₩1,351 to ₩1,365 over the next 2 to 3 sessions.

Semiconductor firms’ dollar conversions increase won demand and weigh on pair

A key driver in recent sessions has been the large-scale conversion of US dollars into won by major Korean semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, according to Asiae Co. This activity directly increased the market supply of US dollars while driving demand for won, leading to downward pressure on USD/KRW. The move reflects ongoing liquidity needs for corporate operations at these firms.

Momentum remains strong as USD/KRW near overbought and key supports

Technically, the h1 chart shows USD/KRW above the MA-20 at ₩1,348 and MA-50 at ₩1,345, confirming near-term momentum, while the pair remains below the daily MA-200 at ₩1,469. The Ichimoku Kijun level at ₩1,349 acts as nearby support. Momentum indicators are strong: MACD and ADX both register buy signals, while oscillators—RSI at 72.39, Stochastic RSI, and CCI—suggest overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power intraday favors buyers, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms the ongoing upward momentum.

Limited upside expected as low volatility narrows near-term range

Short-term expectations see USD/KRW holding within a range of ₩1,351 to ₩1,365 over the coming 2–3 sessions as low volatility persists. A sustained move above current resistance could open the way for retests of the upper band, given the strong momentum backdrop. While an upward break is the most probable outcome, a decline below support at ₩1,349 could trigger a quick move to the lower edge of the expected range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that institutional FX conversions by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix set the tone for recent moves in USD/KRW. He observes that price stays above short-term technical supports, but the pair is still capped by longer-term trend resistance and overbought technicals. Kharitonov is cautious about chasing momentum higher while volatility remains subdued. He concludes: "Until USD/KRW breaks above ₩1,365 with conviction, I remain on the sidelines and watch for signs of reversal."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/KRW was entrenched in a bearish trajectory, driven by persistent downside momentum. The recent shift toward near-term bullish momentum above key moving averages introduces a potential inflection point, making a sustained break above resistance particularly noteworthy for traders watching for an extension of the current rebound.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.