Bank of England holds rates at 3.75%: Can GBP/AUD hold A$1.8661 support?

Traders Union
All News
Currency
Pound Sterling drops 0.66% to A$1.8755

Highlights

The Bank of England held its policy rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote, maintaining a neutral monetary stance.
This decision reduces the likelihood of near-term Pound Sterling appreciation against the Australian Dollar.
GBP/AUD trades below key moving averages with broad momentum signals confirming a strong bearish bias and projected range of A$1.8661 to A$1.8849.

Bank of England rate pause curtails near-term pound upside

The Bank of England has decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% following a 6-3 vote, according to Actionforex. By maintaining its current monetary policy stance, the central bank signals a pause in tightening, limiting immediate yield-driven support for Pound Sterling. This neutral stance reduces the probability of near-term currency appreciation against the Australian Dollar.

Bearish momentum confirmed amid key resistance and limited volatility

The H1 chart shows GBP/AUD sitting below the MA-20 at A$1.8843, MA-50 at A$1.8874, and the longer-term MA-200 at A$1.9014. The Ichimoku Kijun provides immediate resistance at A$1.8843. MACD currently flashes a sell signal, with ADX neutral. RSI is at 32.4, solidly in sell territory, while CCI is oversold and Stochastic RSI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power indicates continued seller dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms a bearish momentum setup. Price is positioned near the session's low at A$1.8755 with notably low volatility.

Sideways range favored as breakout risk remains minimal

Over the next 2–3 trading days, GBP/AUD is expected to remain within the A$1.8661 to A$1.8849 range. The probability of an upward breakout is very low, and further downside is highly likely. The baseline scenario sees the pair consolidating in a sideways corridor within this band. A bullish scenario would require a clean break above the A$1.8843 resistance, while a bearish extension comes into play if support at A$1.8661 is breached, opening the path to additional losses.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the underlying macro landscape as unsupportive for GBP/AUD in the near term. He notes the Bank of England's rate hold removes a key bullish catalyst for Pound Sterling. Technicals confirm persistent selling pressure, with no shift in sentiment or momentum toward the upside. He believes a break below A$1.8661 would deepen the decline, but a sustained move above resistance is unlikely for now. "With yields steady and sellers in control, patience is warranted — any bullish scenario first requires clear confirmation above A$1.8843."

Previously it was reported that GBP/AUD showed renewed upside risks as underlying demand for Pound Sterling improved and the technical outlook shifted in favor of buyers. However, the latest price action and technical signals now point to prevailing downside momentum, making a sustained move below A$1.8661 the key risk to monitor in the short term.

Source of Data: GBP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.