Kaiko CEO: European stablecoins still cannot compete with USDT

​The cryptocurrency market is changing rapidly, and traditional trading patterns no longer always apply. Major investors are increasing their exposure to Bitcoin, while political decisions in the U.S. can trigger sharp price movements almost instantly. In an interview with Traders Union, Kaiko CEO Ambre Soubiran explains why Bitcoin sometimes moves in tandem with stocks, how ETFs have reshaped the market, and why European stablecoins are struggling to gain traction.

What data do institutional investors need?

Over the past several years, investment funds, banks, and other major financial institutions have entered the cryptocurrency market. For these institutions, knowing the current price of Bitcoin or Ethereum is no longer enough.

Financial institutions therefore rely on specialized analytics services, including Kaiko. According to Ambre Soubiran, the company collects data from more than 150 trading venues and provides it to institutional clients.

“Most institutions don’t need another screen showing the price of BTC. They want to know whether the data can carry a real financial decision: a valuation, a margin call, a settlement.”

Beyond trade and order book data, institutions also need tools for market surveillance, fair value assessment and risk management. The information must be standardized and traceable to its original source.

Another growing area is data infrastructure for tokenized assets. Banks and investment companies are gradually bringing financial instruments onto blockchain networks, but they face challenges when integrating traditional financial data into this new environment.

“Institutions want to bring licensed financial data into smart contracts without losing control of it. They also need onchain activity to flow back to their risk teams, finance departments and regulators.”

Why Bitcoin moves in tandem with stocks and gold

Bitcoin is often called digital gold, yet its price movements sometimes resemble those of technology stocks. At other times, the cryptocurrency behaves more like the precious metal. According to Soubiran, the explanation lies in which economic risks investors consider most important.

When market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, their appetite for riskier assets typically increases. In such circumstances, Bitcoin may move in the same direction as technology stocks. Conversely, concerns about U.S. government debt and the dollar's stability can change how investors view the cryptocurrency.

“When the focus is risk appetite and the Fed’s next move, BTC trades like a growth stock. It rises with equities when investors expect cheaper money and falls with them when fear sets in, as in the global selloff of summer 2024.”

Soubiran points to August 19, 2026, as an example of Bitcoin behaving more like gold than a risk asset. On that day, the U.S. Treasury doubled its buybacks of long-dated bonds. As the dollar weakened, gold gained 4%, while Bitcoin rose 6%.

“When the worry shifts to government debt and the dollar, BTC starts to look more like gold, an asset no central bank can print.”

According to Kaiko data, Bitcoin's correlation with stocks has remained positive for three years. However, its strength varies, particularly around major Federal Reserve decisions. The correlation briefly turned negative in the summer of 2025 before strengthening again through 2026.

How Trump's decisions affect the crypto market

U.S. policy has become an important factor shaping cryptocurrency investor sentiment. President Donald Trump's statements on tariffs, regulation, and economic relations with other countries can trigger sharp price swings.

Unlike traditional stock exchanges, however, cryptocurrency markets operate around the clock. When major news breaks after U.S. exchanges have closed, investors can immediately react through cryptocurrencies and derivatives.

“A political announcement made in Washington can show up in prices worldwide within seconds, and investors can adjust positions, hedge through derivatives or move liquidity straight away.”

One of the clearest examples came on October 10, 2025. After U.S. stock markets had closed, Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. The resulting crypto market selloff triggered a record wave of forced liquidations of leveraged positions.

“Around $19 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated within hours, the largest such event on record.”

According to Soubiran, markets often react to expectations about future government policy rather than final decisions. High leverage amplifies these movements, as falling prices can trigger a chain reaction of forced position closures.

How Bitcoin ETFs have changed market liquidity

The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 marked an important milestone for the cryptocurrency market. Investors gained access to Bitcoin through familiar exchange-traded products without having to buy or store the cryptocurrency themselves.

ETFs attracted additional capital and increased the involvement of traditional market makers. These firms provide liquidity, hedge risks, and take advantage of price differences between ETFs and the underlying asset. Their activity helps deepen Bitcoin's order books and improve trading liquidity.

“Kaiko data shows BTC market depth across exchanges has roughly doubled, from about $250 million before U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 to around $500 million in October 2026.”

The most favorable conditions for executing large Bitcoin trades are becoming concentrated during U.S. trading hours. Activity has also become more closely tied to the U.S. stock market schedule, particularly the market close, when ETF net asset values are calculated using benchmark prices.

In the first year following the launch of spot ETFs, U.S. exchanges' share of Bitcoin liquidity increased from 35% to 45%, illustrating the growing influence of U.S. trading venues on the global Bitcoin market.

As a result, although cryptocurrencies trade around the clock, traditional financial markets are playing a growing role in determining how Bitcoin liquidity is distributed throughout the day.

Why European stablecoins struggle to compete with USDT

The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) establishes common rules for cryptocurrency companies and stablecoin issuers. One of its goals is to create a regulated environment for digital assets, including tokens pegged to the euro.

However, USDT, the largest dollar-backed stablecoin, does not comply with MiCA requirements. As a result, several cryptocurrency exchanges have restricted European users' access to trading the asset. The new rules were expected to give regulated competitors an advantage, but Kaiko's data shows little change in trading patterns.

The company analyzed stablecoin trading across eight MiCA-regulated venues over an 18-month period. The study covered both key enforcement dates: June 30 and December 30, 2024.

“USDT held roughly 70% of stablecoin spot volume on those venues throughout, with USDC at around 28%. Neither date shows a break.”

Moreover, USDT's daily trading volume on the venues studied peaked at around $45 billion in early 2025, despite restrictions on European clients. Meanwhile, euro-pegged stablecoins EURC and EURCV accounted for just 1% to 2% of trading volume by the end of the year.

Soubiran, however, points to an important limitation of the research. The exchanges examined serve customers worldwide, meaning the figures do not isolate trading activity originating in Europe.

“Either the delistings had little effect, or European volume is too small to move the total.”

According to Soubiran, the real sign of success for European stablecoins would be their ability to take market share away from USDT. So far, Kaiko has seen no evidence of such a shift.

How tokenized stock prices are determined

Tokenization makes it possible to bring traditional financial instruments onto blockchain networks and trade them around the clock. However, this model presents a major challenge: stock exchanges operate on fixed schedules, while tokenized assets can continue trading overnight and on weekends.

As a result, the price of a tokenized stock does not always match that of its underlying asset. The difference becomes particularly noticeable outside regular trading hours, when investors no longer have access to live stock prices.

Kaiko analyzed trading in tokenized U.S. stocks on the decentralized exchange Uniswap. During regular trading hours, the median price difference between tokenized stocks and their underlying shares is no more than 0.26%. However, the difference widens outside regular market hours.

“On Robinhood Chain, which carries most of the volume, it reaches 0.87% overnight and 0.58% at weekends.”

Despite the closure of traditional exchanges, investors remain active in tokenized assets. In September, 49% of tokenized stock trading volume on Uniswap occurred while U.S. stock exchanges were closed.

A change in a token's price over the weekend does not necessarily mean that it is incorrectly priced. In some cases, the market can react to news before the underlying stock begins trading again.

“Over three weekends in September, there were 16 cases where a stock opened at least 1% higher or lower on Monday. In 14 of them, the token had already moved the same way over the weekend, as traders reacted to news before Wall Street could.”

According to Soubiran, determining the value of tokenized assets outside regular trading hours requires additional market data and dedicated pricing methodologies. This is particularly important for platforms offering investors round-the-clock trading.

Why perpetual futures are becoming the foundation of crypto trading

Perpetual futures allow traders to profit from both rising and falling cryptocurrency prices, use leverage, and hedge price risks. Unlike traditional futures, these contracts have no expiration date, allowing positions to remain open for extended periods.

The growing popularity of perpetual futures has reshaped Bitcoin trading. A substantial share of activity has shifted toward derivatives markets, where investors can trade large positions without directly purchasing cryptocurrency.

“People still think of BTC as something you buy and sell, on an exchange or through an ETF. The volume tells you otherwise. Kaiko data shows perpetual futures (perps) made up 68% of BTC trading volume in 2025.”

Activity in derivatives markets also influences Bitcoin's price movements, as leveraged positions and hedging transactions can amplify buying and selling pressure.

Meanwhile, perpetual futures are gradually expanding beyond the cryptocurrency industry. For example, the decentralized platform Hyperliquid already offers derivatives linked to stocks, oil, and metals. Traditional financial companies are also beginning to explore this market.

“On Hyperliquid, open interest in perps on equities, oil and metals hit a record $2.65 billion in May 2026. Coinbase has filed to list perps on around 50 single stocks and ETFs.”

Once primarily associated with cryptocurrency trading, perpetual futures are now expanding into traditional asset classes. Their growing adoption, Soubiran suggests, could help reshape how financial markets operate beyond conventional trading hours.