Euro vs Indian Rupee trades down after remaining under key moving averages

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Euro vs rupee slides 0.51% today

Highlights

EUR/INR trades below short, medium, and long-term moving averages, confirming sustained seller pressure across all timeframes.
Bearish momentum prevails, with MACD and RSI both on sell signals and Stochastic RSI indicating oversold conditions.
Expected five-day range is ₹108.7251 to ₹109.8317, with a 79% probability of a move lower if support at ₹108.7251 breaks.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees sustained bearish momentum in EUR/INR as the pair trades below all major moving averages. He notes sellers maintain control, reinforced by weak price action and a lack of supportive news flow on recent dates. The analyst points to neutral-to-bearish oscillators and increased intraday volatility as clear warning signs. He believes the technical setup leans heavily toward further downside, especially if support at ₹108.7251 breaks. "Traders should exercise caution and avoid chasing rebounds, as further declines remain the likeliest outcome," Kharitonov says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, acknowledges the current selling but highlights the longer-term bullish alignment between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. He remains confident that the sideways structure could develop into new opportunities if buyers reclaim key resistance near ₹109.8317. Karapetjanc notes the wider macro landscape offers little disruption to the bullish foundation. "Despite short-term setbacks, the medium-term structure remains constructive and traders should watch for potential upward momentum in the coming sessions," he states.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, questions the short-lived buyer presence as EUR/INR remains pressured. He observes no supportive macro or sentiment catalysts, which limits buyer confidence. The analyst finds the oversold readings unconvincing against dominant seller flows. "The absence of positive sentiment and macro triggers tells me EUR/INR's downside risk remains strong," Dele says.

Downside momentum persists as technical support and resistance shift

EUR/INR is currently trading below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages at ₹110.224, ₹110.3454, and ₹109.359 respectively, reflecting broad-based pressure from sellers in the short, medium, and long term. The near-term ceiling is identified at ₹109.359, with near-term floor support at ₹108.7251, while the Ichimoku Kijun at ₹110.6924 confirms continued downside resistance within the prevailing trend structure; the MA-50 vs MA-200 alignment remains bullish for the longer term. Momentum indicators signal a predominantly bearish tone: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) both indicate “Sell”, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) is neutral, reflecting a weak trend. RSI sits at 42.48, Stochastic RSI at 17.21 signals oversold, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is in neutral territory. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at 0.1538 signals buyers have slight intraday dominance, though the Stochastic RSI points to oversold conditions. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) also favors selling momentum. The pair opened nearly flat and is now trading at ₹109.2784, down ₹0.5602 or 0.51%, with price near the day’s low and intraday volatility at 0.44%. Intraday dynamics show renewed seller pressure after the open, heightening the bearish near-term momentum signaled by the oscillators.

Earlier, analysts noted that Euro vs Indian Rupee remained under persistent bearish pressure amid subdued momentum and limited volatility. The current analysis reinforces this outlook, highlighting that a decisive break of the ₹108.7251 support could open the door to further downside risk in the days ahead.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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