EUR/TRY consolidates near session low as support holds amid Turkish lira depreciation strategy

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Euro vs Turkish Lira slides 0.64% today

Highlights

Turkey's central bank is allowing the lira to depreciate more rapidly to prevent sharper future currency declines.
Monetary authorities are pursuing gradual adjustments to manage ongoing vulnerabilities in the lira's exchange rate.
EUR/TRY remains under short- and medium-term seller pressure, with price expected to consolidate between ₺54.6545 and ₺55.2809 in the next 2 to 3 days.

Lira management shifts as central bank signals gradual depreciation

Turkey's central bank has adopted a more flexible approach by allowing the lira to depreciate at a quicker pace, with Governor Fatih Karahan explaining that this strategy aims to avert more abrupt currency weakness in the longer term, according to Bloomberg. This measured policy change signals a willingness by Turkish monetary authorities to manage currency pressures through gradual adjustments, influencing sentiment among market participants. Overall, the move reflects a direct effort to maintain stability while responding to underlying vulnerabilities in the lira’s exchange rate dynamics.

Bullish signals diverge from downside trend near support zone

On the technical front, EUR/TRY is trading below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the h1 chart, with support remaining above the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun level at ₺55.3072 acts as immediate resistance. Momentum readings are divergent: while MACD gives a Strong Buy and ADX points to continued buying, both RSI and CCI signal Sell. Stoch RSI sits in oversold territory, Bull/Bear Power currently favors sellers, and the Awesome Oscillator provides no clear trend confirmation. This mix highlights a divergence between isolated bullish signals and prevailing downside action, especially as price trades near the session low in a low-volatility environment.

Downside bias prevails as range holds with break risks

Looking ahead over the next two to three trading days, EUR/TRY is expected to consolidate between ₺54.6545 and ₺55.2809. The probability of an upward move is estimated at 29%, with a higher likelihood of prices moving lower. The baseline scenario calls for continued range-bound trading within this volatility band. A decisive break above ₺55.3072 would open the path for a bullish scenario, while a breach below ₺54.6545 would trigger further downside.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees the Turkish central bank’s explicit shift to controlled lira depreciation as a signal of institutional readiness to manage stress in FX markets. He believes fundamental and macro factors remain in focus as authorities build confidence through policy transparency. Technical signals are mixed, but sentiment is shaped by proactive central interventions. "I expect steady price action in EUR/TRY near ₺54.9291 as traders await further signs of policy impact and market stabilization."

Previously it was reported that bullish momentum in EUR/TRY was supported by prices holding above key moving averages and persistent buyer dominance. The current article signals a shift in the technical landscape, with downside pressure emerging and traders advised to monitor ₺55.3072 as a critical resistance level that could determine the next directional move.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.